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Rethinking change in Japan's security policy : punctuated equilibrium theory and Japan's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

O'shea, Paul LU and Maslow, Sebastian (2024) In Policy Studies 45(3-4). p.653-676
Abstract
Change in Japanese foreign and security policy has long been characterized as “incremental”. However, Japan’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine provides an opportunity to reconsider this paradigm. In the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea, then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzō chose not to put Crimea on the agenda, prioritizing instead relations with Russia. However, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio responded to the 2022 invasion by increasing ties with NATO, promising to double Japan’s military spending, and acquiring capabilities that were once considered off-limits, including cruise missiles. This dramatic policy shift is analyzed using punctuated equilibrium theory (PET). We find that the 2022 invasion became a focusing event,... (More)
Change in Japanese foreign and security policy has long been characterized as “incremental”. However, Japan’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine provides an opportunity to reconsider this paradigm. In the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea, then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzō chose not to put Crimea on the agenda, prioritizing instead relations with Russia. However, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio responded to the 2022 invasion by increasing ties with NATO, promising to double Japan’s military spending, and acquiring capabilities that were once considered off-limits, including cruise missiles. This dramatic policy shift is analyzed using punctuated equilibrium theory (PET). We find that the 2022 invasion became a focusing event, shifting public and elite opinion in unison. Where Crimea was played down, Ukraine was clearly linked to Asia, to a possible invasion of Taiwan, and as a threat to the entire liberal international order under which Japan had prospered. We argue that overall change in Japan’s policy has not been continuous, rather, focusing events, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, 9/11, and the 2012 “national security crisis” have precipitated fundamental change. Thus, we conclude that PET provides a better understanding of policy change than incrementalism. (Less)
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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Security policy, foreign policy, punctuated equilibrium theory, Japan, Russia, incrementalism
in
Policy Studies
volume
45
issue
3-4
pages
653 - 676
publisher
Routledge
external identifiers
  • scopus:85183912441
ISSN
1470-1006
DOI
10.1080/01442872.2024.2309218
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6ce9168c-f7de-4367-b0e1-68801616fdaf
date added to LUP
2024-02-14 08:04:45
date last changed
2024-05-14 15:41:13
@article{6ce9168c-f7de-4367-b0e1-68801616fdaf,
  abstract     = {{Change in Japanese foreign and security policy has long been characterized as “incremental”. However, Japan’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine provides an opportunity to reconsider this paradigm. In the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea, then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzō chose not to put Crimea on the agenda, prioritizing instead relations with Russia. However, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio responded to the 2022 invasion by increasing ties with NATO, promising to double Japan’s military spending, and acquiring capabilities that were once considered off-limits, including cruise missiles. This dramatic policy shift is analyzed using punctuated equilibrium theory (PET). We find that the 2022 invasion became a focusing event, shifting public and elite opinion in unison. Where Crimea was played down, Ukraine was clearly linked to Asia, to a possible invasion of Taiwan, and as a threat to the entire liberal international order under which Japan had prospered. We argue that overall change in Japan’s policy has not been continuous, rather, focusing events, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, 9/11, and the 2012 “national security crisis” have precipitated fundamental change. Thus, we conclude that PET provides a better understanding of policy change than incrementalism.}},
  author       = {{O'shea, Paul and Maslow, Sebastian}},
  issn         = {{1470-1006}},
  keywords     = {{Security policy; foreign policy; punctuated equilibrium theory; Japan; Russia; incrementalism}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3-4}},
  pages        = {{653--676}},
  publisher    = {{Routledge}},
  series       = {{Policy Studies}},
  title        = {{Rethinking change in Japan's security policy : punctuated equilibrium theory and Japan's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2024.2309218}},
  doi          = {{10.1080/01442872.2024.2309218}},
  volume       = {{45}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}