Risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for considering the effects of climate change on bridges
(2023) In Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 19(10). p.1445-1458- Abstract
Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, how can a bridge owner prioritise which impacts to consider, and for which bridges? This paper proposes a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for systematically addressing these two questions simultaneously. The proposed method can be used to address both extreme and non-extreme impacts as opposed to focussing solely on extreme impacts as has been done in previous prioritisation studies related to climate change risks. The proposed method is based on four main components of risk: hazard, impact, vulnerability and consequences. Several indices characterising these components are used to... (More)
Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, how can a bridge owner prioritise which impacts to consider, and for which bridges? This paper proposes a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for systematically addressing these two questions simultaneously. The proposed method can be used to address both extreme and non-extreme impacts as opposed to focussing solely on extreme impacts as has been done in previous prioritisation studies related to climate change risks. The proposed method is based on four main components of risk: hazard, impact, vulnerability and consequences. Several indices characterising these components are used to address the previous two questions. To reflect the uncertainty in the analysis, the different indices are assessed optimistically and pessimistically. Additionally, to ensure a more transparent decision-making process the inclusion of a strength of evidence assessment is also proposed. The applicability of the method is then demonstrated on three illustrative case studies for three different potential climate change impacts. It is concluded that the proposed method is both feasible and appropriately fulfils its purpose. Nevertheless, the proposed method should be more elaborately tested on practical bridge case studies to further establish its applicability.
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- author
- Nasr, Amro LU ; Johansson, Jonas LU ; Larsson Ivanov, Oskar LU ; Björnsson, Ivar LU and Honfi, Dániel LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2023
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- bridges, climate change, infrastructure safety, Multi-criteria decision analysis, prioritisation, risk, risk ranking, uncertainty
- in
- Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
- volume
- 19
- issue
- 10
- pages
- 1445 - 1458
- publisher
- Taylor & Francis
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85124195787
- ISSN
- 1573-2479
- DOI
- 10.1080/15732479.2022.2033278
- project
- Climate change impact on safety and performance of existing and future infrastructure
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
- id
- 6f91aafe-1938-4ecd-8290-fb10ded86a4b
- date added to LUP
- 2022-05-09 13:18:19
- date last changed
- 2023-10-26 14:58:40
@article{6f91aafe-1938-4ecd-8290-fb10ded86a4b,
abstract = {{<p>Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, how can a bridge owner prioritise which impacts to consider, and for which bridges? This paper proposes a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for systematically addressing these two questions simultaneously. The proposed method can be used to address both extreme and non-extreme impacts as opposed to focussing solely on extreme impacts as has been done in previous prioritisation studies related to climate change risks. The proposed method is based on four main components of risk: hazard, impact, vulnerability and consequences. Several indices characterising these components are used to address the previous two questions. To reflect the uncertainty in the analysis, the different indices are assessed optimistically and pessimistically. Additionally, to ensure a more transparent decision-making process the inclusion of a strength of evidence assessment is also proposed. The applicability of the method is then demonstrated on three illustrative case studies for three different potential climate change impacts. It is concluded that the proposed method is both feasible and appropriately fulfils its purpose. Nevertheless, the proposed method should be more elaborately tested on practical bridge case studies to further establish its applicability.</p>}},
author = {{Nasr, Amro and Johansson, Jonas and Larsson Ivanov, Oskar and Björnsson, Ivar and Honfi, Dániel}},
issn = {{1573-2479}},
keywords = {{bridges; climate change; infrastructure safety; Multi-criteria decision analysis; prioritisation; risk; risk ranking; uncertainty}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{10}},
pages = {{1445--1458}},
publisher = {{Taylor & Francis}},
series = {{Structure and Infrastructure Engineering}},
title = {{Risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for considering the effects of climate change on bridges}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2022.2033278}},
doi = {{10.1080/15732479.2022.2033278}},
volume = {{19}},
year = {{2023}},
}