Advanced

Vulnerability reduction needed to maintain current burdens of heat-related mortality in a changing climate—magnitude and determinants

Åström, Christofer; Åström, Daniel Oudin LU ; Andersson, Camilla LU ; Ebi, Kristie L. and Forsberg, Bertil (2017) In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14(7).
Abstract

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s, this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a... (More)

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s, this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Adaptation, Climate change, Europe, Health, Heat
in
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
volume
14
issue
7
publisher
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85021895513
  • wos:000407370700073
ISSN
1661-7827
DOI
10.3390/ijerph14070741
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
7091aa71-c086-4ac0-8841-3334566de8cd
date added to LUP
2017-07-26 13:49:15
date last changed
2017-09-18 11:39:55
@article{7091aa71-c086-4ac0-8841-3334566de8cd,
  abstract     = {<p>The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s, this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.</p>},
  articleno    = {741},
  author       = {Åström, Christofer and Åström, Daniel Oudin and Andersson, Camilla and Ebi, Kristie L. and Forsberg, Bertil},
  issn         = {1661-7827},
  keyword      = {Adaptation,Climate change,Europe,Health,Heat},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {07},
  number       = {7},
  publisher    = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)},
  series       = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
  title        = {Vulnerability reduction needed to maintain current burdens of heat-related mortality in a changing climate—magnitude and determinants},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070741},
  volume       = {14},
  year         = {2017},
}