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Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change

Grünig, Marc ; Rammer, Werner ; Baumann, Martin ; Albrich, Katharina ; André, Frédéric ; Augustynczik, Andrey L.D. ; Bohn, Friedrich J. ; Bouwman, Meike ; Bugmann, Harald and Collalti, Alessio , et al. (2026) In Communications Earth and Environment 7(1).
Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter species assemblages by affecting the outcome of competition between species. Investigating processes of competition remains challenging in tree communities, as they unfold over extensive spatio-temporal scales. Here, we used a deep learning-based meta-model trained on 135 million simulated tree responses to climate across Europe to investigate changes in the competitiveness of nine major tree species under future climate. We harnessed projections from local process models to train a Deep Neural Network of forest state transitions to investigate climate-induced changes in competition at continental scale. We found decreasing competitive strength for evergreen conifers across their distribution, while... (More)

Climate change is expected to alter species assemblages by affecting the outcome of competition between species. Investigating processes of competition remains challenging in tree communities, as they unfold over extensive spatio-temporal scales. Here, we used a deep learning-based meta-model trained on 135 million simulated tree responses to climate across Europe to investigate changes in the competitiveness of nine major tree species under future climate. We harnessed projections from local process models to train a Deep Neural Network of forest state transitions to investigate climate-induced changes in competition at continental scale. We found decreasing competitive strength for evergreen conifers across their distribution, while deciduous broadleaved species increased in competitiveness. Most investigated species lost competitive strength at their warm range edges. Consequently, up to 25% of Europe’s forests could experience a change in the dominant tree species until the end of the 21st century, suggesting a profound climate-induced reassembly of Europe’s forests.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Communications Earth and Environment
volume
7
issue
1
article number
401
publisher
Springer Nature
external identifiers
  • scopus:105038868923
ISSN
2662-4435
DOI
10.1038/s43247-026-03582-0
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
7298bfc2-44ea-4ec8-ba58-ee77bea2daf1
date added to LUP
2026-08-11 10:48:39
date last changed
2026-08-11 11:00:52
@article{7298bfc2-44ea-4ec8-ba58-ee77bea2daf1,
  abstract     = {{<p>Climate change is expected to alter species assemblages by affecting the outcome of competition between species. Investigating processes of competition remains challenging in tree communities, as they unfold over extensive spatio-temporal scales. Here, we used a deep learning-based meta-model trained on 135 million simulated tree responses to climate across Europe to investigate changes in the competitiveness of nine major tree species under future climate. We harnessed projections from local process models to train a Deep Neural Network of forest state transitions to investigate climate-induced changes in competition at continental scale. We found decreasing competitive strength for evergreen conifers across their distribution, while deciduous broadleaved species increased in competitiveness. Most investigated species lost competitive strength at their warm range edges. Consequently, up to 25% of Europe’s forests could experience a change in the dominant tree species until the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, suggesting a profound climate-induced reassembly of Europe’s forests.</p>}},
  author       = {{Grünig, Marc and Rammer, Werner and Baumann, Martin and Albrich, Katharina and André, Frédéric and Augustynczik, Andrey L.D. and Bohn, Friedrich J. and Bouwman, Meike and Bugmann, Harald and Collalti, Alessio and Cristal, Irina and Dalmonech, Daniela and De Caceres, Miquel and De Coligny, Francois and Dobor, Laura and Dollinger, Christina and Forrester, David I. and Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi and González-Olabarria, José Ramón and Hiltner, Ulrike and Hlásny, Tomáš and Honkaniemi, Juha and Huber, Nica and Huth, Andreas and Jonard, Mathieu and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Lagergren, Fredrik and Mina, Marco and Mohren, Frits and Moos, Christine and Morin, Xavier and Muys, Bart and Nieberg, Mats and Peltoniemi, Mikko and Reyer, Christopher P.O. and Storms, Ilié and Thom, Dominik and Toïgo, Maude and Seidl, Rupert}},
  issn         = {{2662-4435}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Springer Nature}},
  series       = {{Communications Earth and Environment}},
  title        = {{Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03582-0}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s43247-026-03582-0}},
  volume       = {{7}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}