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Soil nitrous oxide emissions from global land ecosystems and their drivers within the LPJ-GUESS model (v4.1)

Ma, Jianyong ; Arneth, Almut ; Smith, Benjamin LU ; Anthoni, Peter ; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri ; Eliasson, Peter ; Wårlind, David LU orcid ; Wittenbrink, Martin and Olin, Stefan LU orcid (2025) In Geoscientific Model Development 18(10). p.3131-3155
Abstract
Nitrogen (N) transformation processes by soil microbes account for significant nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from natural ecosystems and cropland. However, understanding and quantifying global soil N2O emissions and their responses to changing environmental conditions remain challenging. Here, we implemented a soil nitrification–denitrification module into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to estimate N2O emissions from global lands. The performance of this new development is examined using observed N2O fluxes from natural-soil and cropland field trials and independent global-scale estimates. LPJ-GUESS broadly reproduces the cumulative N2O emissions under different climate... (More)
Nitrogen (N) transformation processes by soil microbes account for significant nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from natural ecosystems and cropland. However, understanding and quantifying global soil N2O emissions and their responses to changing environmental conditions remain challenging. Here, we implemented a soil nitrification–denitrification module into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to estimate N2O emissions from global lands. The performance of this new development is examined using observed N2O fluxes from natural-soil and cropland field trials and independent global-scale estimates. LPJ-GUESS broadly reproduces the cumulative N2O emissions under different climate conditions and N fertilizer applications that are observed in the field experiments, with some deviations in emission seasonality. Globally, simulated soil N2O emissions from terrestrial ecosystems increase from 5.6±0.2 Tg N yr−1 in the 1960s to 9.9±0.3 Tg N yr−1 in the 2010s, with croplands contributing about two-thirds of the total increase. East Asia and South Asia show the fastest growth rates in N2O emissions over the study period due to the expansion of fertilized croplands. On a global scale, N fertilization (including synthetic fertilizer and manure use), atmospheric N deposition, and climate change contribute 58 %, 46 %, and 24 %, respectively, to the simulated soil N2O emissions in the 2010s. Rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere reduce the simulated emissions by 32 % through increased plant N uptake, whereas land use changes have varied spatial effects on emissions depending on N management intensity after land cover conversion. Our estimates only account for the direct soil N2O emissions, excluding those from fertilized pastures. This study highlights the importance of environmental factors in influencing global soil N2O emissions, particularly for assessing greenhouse gas mitigation potential in agricultural ecosystems.
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author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Geoscientific Model Development
volume
18
issue
10
pages
3131 - 3155
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
1991-9603
DOI
10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
76c1e9fd-0552-4386-b2c3-e886ba1d58ba
date added to LUP
2025-05-28 10:09:07
date last changed
2025-06-02 16:20:50
@article{76c1e9fd-0552-4386-b2c3-e886ba1d58ba,
  abstract     = {{Nitrogen (N) transformation processes by soil microbes account for significant nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions from natural ecosystems and cropland. However, understanding and quantifying global soil N<sub>2</sub>O emissions and their responses to changing environmental conditions remain challenging. Here, we implemented a soil nitrification–denitrification module into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to estimate N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from global lands. The performance of this new development is examined using observed N<sub>2</sub>O fluxes from natural-soil and cropland field trials and independent global-scale estimates. LPJ-GUESS broadly reproduces the cumulative N<sub>2</sub>O emissions under different climate conditions and N fertilizer applications that are observed in the field experiments, with some deviations in emission seasonality. Globally, simulated soil N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from terrestrial ecosystems increase from 5.6±0.2 Tg N yr<sup>−1</sup> in the 1960s to 9.9±0.3 Tg N yr<sup>−1</sup> in the 2010s, with croplands contributing about two-thirds of the total increase. East Asia and South Asia show the fastest growth rates in N2O emissions over the study period due to the expansion of fertilized croplands. On a global scale, N fertilization (including synthetic fertilizer and manure use), atmospheric N deposition, and climate change contribute 58 %, 46 %, and 24 %, respectively, to the simulated soil N<sub>2</sub>O emissions in the 2010s. Rising CO<sub>2</sub> levels in the atmosphere reduce the simulated emissions by 32 % through increased plant N uptake, whereas land use changes have varied spatial effects on emissions depending on N management intensity after land cover conversion. Our estimates only account for the direct soil N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, excluding those from fertilized pastures. This study highlights the importance of environmental factors in influencing global soil N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, particularly for assessing greenhouse gas mitigation potential in agricultural ecosystems.<br/>}},
  author       = {{Ma, Jianyong and Arneth, Almut and Smith, Benjamin and Anthoni, Peter and Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri and Eliasson, Peter and Wårlind, David and Wittenbrink, Martin and Olin, Stefan}},
  issn         = {{1991-9603}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{05}},
  number       = {{10}},
  pages        = {{3131--3155}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Geoscientific Model Development}},
  title        = {{Soil nitrous oxide emissions from global land ecosystems and their drivers within the LPJ-GUESS model (v4.1)}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025}},
  volume       = {{18}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}