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Risk for psychiatric and substance use disorders as a function of transitions in Sweden's public educational system : a national study

Kendler, Kenneth S. ; Keefe, Richard S.E. ; Ohlsson, Henrik LU ; Sundquist, Jan LU and Sundquist, Kristina LU (2024) In Psychological Medicine 54(1). p.117-124
Abstract

BACKGROUND: To clarify, in a national sample, associations between risk for seven psychiatric and substance use disorders and five key transitions in Sweden's public educational system. METHODS: Swedish-born individuals (1972-1995, N = 1 997 910) were followed through 12-31-2018, at mean age 34.9. We predicted, from these educational transitions, risk for major depression (MD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), bipolar disorder (BD), schizophrenia (SZ), anorexia nervosa (AN), alcohol use disorder (AUD), and drug use disorder (DUD), assessed from Swedish national registers, by Cox regression, censoring individuals with onsets ⩽17. We also predicted risk from the deviation of grades from family-genetic expectations (deviation 1) and... (More)

BACKGROUND: To clarify, in a national sample, associations between risk for seven psychiatric and substance use disorders and five key transitions in Sweden's public educational system. METHODS: Swedish-born individuals (1972-1995, N = 1 997 910) were followed through 12-31-2018, at mean age 34.9. We predicted, from these educational transitions, risk for major depression (MD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), bipolar disorder (BD), schizophrenia (SZ), anorexia nervosa (AN), alcohol use disorder (AUD), and drug use disorder (DUD), assessed from Swedish national registers, by Cox regression, censoring individuals with onsets ⩽17. We also predicted risk from the deviation of grades from family-genetic expectations (deviation 1) and from changes in grades from ages 16 to 19 (deviation 2). RESULTS: We observed four major risk patterns across transitions in our disorders: (i) MD and BD, (ii) OCD and SZ, (iii) AUD and DUD, and (iv) AN. Failing early educational transitions had the greatest impact on risk for OCD and SZ while for other disorders, not progressing from basic to upper high school had the largest effect. Completing vocational v. college-prep upper high school was strongly associated with risk for AUD and DUD, had little relation with MD, OCD, BD, and SZ risk, and was protective for AN. Deviation 1 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AN, and MD. Deviation 2 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AUD, and DUD. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of educational transitions and within family and within person development deviations are strongly and relatively specifically associated with future risk for seven psychiatric and substance-use disorders.

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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
alcohol use disorder, Depression, drug abuse, educational transitions, schizophrenia, Sweden
in
Psychological Medicine
volume
54
issue
1
pages
8 pages
publisher
Cambridge University Press
external identifiers
  • pmid:36878890
  • scopus:85184136974
ISSN
1469-8978
DOI
10.1017/S003329172300048X
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
76fe8706-bdfd-498a-bc08-534724b5e5a7
date added to LUP
2024-03-01 14:47:25
date last changed
2024-04-15 02:55:35
@article{76fe8706-bdfd-498a-bc08-534724b5e5a7,
  abstract     = {{<p>BACKGROUND: To clarify, in a national sample, associations between risk for seven psychiatric and substance use disorders and five key transitions in Sweden's public educational system. METHODS: Swedish-born individuals (1972-1995, N = 1 997 910) were followed through 12-31-2018, at mean age 34.9. We predicted, from these educational transitions, risk for major depression (MD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), bipolar disorder (BD), schizophrenia (SZ), anorexia nervosa (AN), alcohol use disorder (AUD), and drug use disorder (DUD), assessed from Swedish national registers, by Cox regression, censoring individuals with onsets ⩽17. We also predicted risk from the deviation of grades from family-genetic expectations (deviation 1) and from changes in grades from ages 16 to 19 (deviation 2). RESULTS: We observed four major risk patterns across transitions in our disorders: (i) MD and BD, (ii) OCD and SZ, (iii) AUD and DUD, and (iv) AN. Failing early educational transitions had the greatest impact on risk for OCD and SZ while for other disorders, not progressing from basic to upper high school had the largest effect. Completing vocational v. college-prep upper high school was strongly associated with risk for AUD and DUD, had little relation with MD, OCD, BD, and SZ risk, and was protective for AN. Deviation 1 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AN, and MD. Deviation 2 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AUD, and DUD. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of educational transitions and within family and within person development deviations are strongly and relatively specifically associated with future risk for seven psychiatric and substance-use disorders.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kendler, Kenneth S. and Keefe, Richard S.E. and Ohlsson, Henrik and Sundquist, Jan and Sundquist, Kristina}},
  issn         = {{1469-8978}},
  keywords     = {{alcohol use disorder; Depression; drug abuse; educational transitions; schizophrenia; Sweden}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{117--124}},
  publisher    = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  series       = {{Psychological Medicine}},
  title        = {{Risk for psychiatric and substance use disorders as a function of transitions in Sweden's public educational system : a national study}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S003329172300048X}},
  doi          = {{10.1017/S003329172300048X}},
  volume       = {{54}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}