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The role of second-order probabilities in decision making

Sahlin, Nils-Eric LU and Goldsmith, Robert LU (1983) 14. p.455-467
Abstract
The importance, legitimacy and role of second-order probabilities are discussed. Two descriptive models of the use of second-order probabilities in decisions are presented. The results of two empirical studies of the effects of second-order probabilities upon the rank orderings of bets are summarized briefly. The bets were of three basic types and involved a wide variety of first- and second-order probabilities as subjectively assessed by the subjects. Support was obtained for the assumption that the majority of subjects make use of the one model or the other. It is suggested that greater attention should be paid to second-order probabilities, both from a normative and descriptive standpoint.
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author
and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes
editor
Humphreys, P.C. ; Svensson, O. and Vari, A.
volume
14
pages
455 - 467
publisher
North-Holland
external identifiers
  • scopus:77956754525
ISSN
0166-4115
ISBN
978-0-444-86522-9
DOI
10.1016/S0166-4115(08)62250-5
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0751a88f-9608-4c07-aa73-f328c3984e9f (old id 7752948)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 16:43:04
date last changed
2020-10-25 05:47:32
@inbook{0751a88f-9608-4c07-aa73-f328c3984e9f,
  abstract     = {The importance, legitimacy and role of second-order probabilities are discussed. Two descriptive models of the use of second-order probabilities in decisions are presented. The results of two empirical studies of the effects of second-order probabilities upon the rank orderings of bets are summarized briefly. The bets were of three basic types and involved a wide variety of first- and second-order probabilities as subjectively assessed by the subjects. Support was obtained for the assumption that the majority of subjects make use of the one model or the other. It is suggested that greater attention should be paid to second-order probabilities, both from a normative and descriptive standpoint.},
  author       = {Sahlin, Nils-Eric and Goldsmith, Robert},
  booktitle    = {Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes},
  editor       = {Humphreys, P.C. and Svensson, O. and Vari, A.},
  isbn         = {978-0-444-86522-9},
  issn         = {0166-4115},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {455--467},
  publisher    = {North-Holland},
  title        = {The role of second-order probabilities in decision making},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0166-4115(08)62250-5},
  doi          = {10.1016/S0166-4115(08)62250-5},
  volume       = {14},
  year         = {1983},
}