Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Predicting snow cover and frozen ground impacts on large basin runoff : developing appropriate model complexity

Wu, Nan LU ; Zhang, Ke ; Naghibi, Amir LU ; Hashemi, Hossein LU orcid ; Ning, Zhongrui LU orcid ; Zhang, Qinuo ; Yi, Xuejun ; Wang, Haijun ; Liu, Wei and Gao, Wei , et al. (2025) In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 29(15). p.3703-3725
Abstract

In cold regions, snow cover and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) exert a substantial influence on hydrological processes, yet their effects – especially at the scale of large basins – remain insufficiently understood due to limited observations and process-based analyses. To address this, we extended the widely used Grid Xinanjiang (GXAJ) hydrological model by developing two physically meaningful yet computationally efficient modules: (i) the GXAJ-S model, which incorporates snowmelt processes, and (ii) the GXAJ-S-SF model, which additionally accounts for freeze–thaw cycles of SFG. These modules strike a balance between physical representation and simplicity, making them applicable in data-sparse cold regions. The model performance was... (More)

In cold regions, snow cover and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) exert a substantial influence on hydrological processes, yet their effects – especially at the scale of large basins – remain insufficiently understood due to limited observations and process-based analyses. To address this, we extended the widely used Grid Xinanjiang (GXAJ) hydrological model by developing two physically meaningful yet computationally efficient modules: (i) the GXAJ-S model, which incorporates snowmelt processes, and (ii) the GXAJ-S-SF model, which additionally accounts for freeze–thaw cycles of SFG. These modules strike a balance between physical representation and simplicity, making them applicable in data-sparse cold regions. The model performance was evaluated using multi-source remote sensing/reanalysis data and observed daily runoff, enabling a systematic investigation of how snow and SFG jointly regulate key hydrological processes. The results demonstrate that: (1) including both snowmelt and freeze–thaw processes significantly improves runoff simulation, especially during cold seasons; (2) snow dynamics directly modulates the development of soil freeze–thaw cycles, thereby altering the hydrothermal state of the vadose zone; and (3) the inclusion of the SFG module in the model variant, which already accounted for snowmelt, increased the predicted surface runoff by 39 %–77 % during cold months, reduced evapotranspiration by approximately 85 %, and substantially modified interflow processes, particularly during the early-spring thaw period. These findings provide quantitative evidence of the critical role of SFG in shaping the seasonal hydrological regime of large cold-region basins. Moreover, the modular and transferable design of the snow and SFG components allows for straightforward integration into other hydrological models, offering a valuable tool for hydro-climatic assessments and water resource management in mountainous regions under changing climate conditions.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and , et al. (More)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and (Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
volume
29
issue
15
pages
23 pages
publisher
European Geophysical Society
external identifiers
  • scopus:105013222428
ISSN
1027-5606
DOI
10.5194/hess-29-3703-2025
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
78a65df2-c7d3-45e7-abb8-1ac27833a852
date added to LUP
2025-11-05 15:15:32
date last changed
2025-11-06 02:57:50
@article{78a65df2-c7d3-45e7-abb8-1ac27833a852,
  abstract     = {{<p>In cold regions, snow cover and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) exert a substantial influence on hydrological processes, yet their effects – especially at the scale of large basins – remain insufficiently understood due to limited observations and process-based analyses. To address this, we extended the widely used Grid Xinanjiang (GXAJ) hydrological model by developing two physically meaningful yet computationally efficient modules: (i) the GXAJ-S model, which incorporates snowmelt processes, and (ii) the GXAJ-S-SF model, which additionally accounts for freeze–thaw cycles of SFG. These modules strike a balance between physical representation and simplicity, making them applicable in data-sparse cold regions. The model performance was evaluated using multi-source remote sensing/reanalysis data and observed daily runoff, enabling a systematic investigation of how snow and SFG jointly regulate key hydrological processes. The results demonstrate that: (1) including both snowmelt and freeze–thaw processes significantly improves runoff simulation, especially during cold seasons; (2) snow dynamics directly modulates the development of soil freeze–thaw cycles, thereby altering the hydrothermal state of the vadose zone; and (3) the inclusion of the SFG module in the model variant, which already accounted for snowmelt, increased the predicted surface runoff by 39 %–77 % during cold months, reduced evapotranspiration by approximately 85 %, and substantially modified interflow processes, particularly during the early-spring thaw period. These findings provide quantitative evidence of the critical role of SFG in shaping the seasonal hydrological regime of large cold-region basins. Moreover, the modular and transferable design of the snow and SFG components allows for straightforward integration into other hydrological models, offering a valuable tool for hydro-climatic assessments and water resource management in mountainous regions under changing climate conditions.</p>}},
  author       = {{Wu, Nan and Zhang, Ke and Naghibi, Amir and Hashemi, Hossein and Ning, Zhongrui and Zhang, Qinuo and Yi, Xuejun and Wang, Haijun and Liu, Wei and Gao, Wei and Jarsjö, Jerker}},
  issn         = {{1027-5606}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{15}},
  pages        = {{3703--3725}},
  publisher    = {{European Geophysical Society}},
  series       = {{Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}},
  title        = {{Predicting snow cover and frozen ground impacts on large basin runoff : developing appropriate model complexity}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3703-2025}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/hess-29-3703-2025}},
  volume       = {{29}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}