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A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Qiu, Chunjing ; Ciais, Philippe ; Zhu, Dan ; Guenet, Bertrand ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Chaudhary, Nitin LU orcid ; Kleinen, Thomas ; Li, Xin Yu ; Müller, Jurek and Xi, Yi , et al. (2022) In One Earth 5(1). p.86-97
Abstract

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming... (More)

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
carbon dioxide, carbon-cycle feedback, land surface models, long-term climate change, methane, peatland, permafrost
in
One Earth
volume
5
issue
1
pages
12 pages
publisher
Cell Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85122979684
ISSN
2590-3330
DOI
10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors
id
7b3824ba-2b7a-4d48-88b8-b7e68fe50372
date added to LUP
2022-02-02 15:57:59
date last changed
2023-08-31 01:14:01
@article{7b3824ba-2b7a-4d48-88b8-b7e68fe50372,
  abstract     = {{<p>Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO<sub>2</sub> and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO<sub>2</sub> source and a substantial increase in CH<sub>4</sub> emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.</p>}},
  author       = {{Qiu, Chunjing and Ciais, Philippe and Zhu, Dan and Guenet, Bertrand and Chang, Jinfeng and Chaudhary, Nitin and Kleinen, Thomas and Li, Xin Yu and Müller, Jurek and Xi, Yi and Zhang, Wenxin and Ballantyne, Ashley and Brewer, Simon C. and Brovkin, Victor and Charman, Dan J. and Gustafson, Adrian and Gallego-Sala, Angela V. and Gasser, Thomas and Holden, Joseph and Joos, Fortunat and Kwon, Min Jung and Lauerwald, Ronny and Miller, Paul A. and Peng, Shushi and Page, Susan and Smith, Benjamin and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Salmon, Elodie and Schurgers, Guy and Shurpali, Narasinha J. and Wårlind, David and Westermann, Sebastian}},
  issn         = {{2590-3330}},
  keywords     = {{carbon dioxide; carbon-cycle feedback; land surface models; long-term climate change; methane; peatland; permafrost}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{86--97}},
  publisher    = {{Cell Press}},
  series       = {{One Earth}},
  title        = {{A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008}},
  volume       = {{5}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}