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Land Use and Cover Changes versus climate shift : Who is the main player in river discharge? A case study in the Upper Paraná River Basin

Abou Rafee, Sameh A. ; Uvo, Cintia B. LU orcid ; Martins, Jorge A. LU ; Machado, Carolyne B. and Freitas, Edmilson D. (2022) In Journal of Environmental Management 309.
Abstract

Assessing the relative contribution of Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) and climate changes on runoff still represents a great challenge for water resources management. This issue is particularly critical for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), one of the most important basins in South America and responsible for most of the production of food, ethanol, and electricity generation in Brazil. In this paper, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of both forcings. The simulation period included a time of great importance for climate studies, known as the 1970s global climate shift, and of great impact on river discharge within the UPRB. Three land use and cover scenarios were... (More)

Assessing the relative contribution of Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) and climate changes on runoff still represents a great challenge for water resources management. This issue is particularly critical for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), one of the most important basins in South America and responsible for most of the production of food, ethanol, and electricity generation in Brazil. In this paper, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of both forcings. The simulation period included a time of great importance for climate studies, known as the 1970s global climate shift, and of great impact on river discharge within the UPRB. Three land use and cover scenarios were assigned to the 1961–1990 period of simulations, representing land use and cover during a pristine period (around the Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. Thirteen years of precipitation before and after the climate shift (considered to be the period 1974–1977) were analyzed and compared. Results showed a precipitation increase for the basin in general after the climate shift. The increase in rainfall reached up to 15% in many northern areas and more than 20% in the southern parts of the basin. By comparing all simulations, results indicate that both LUCC and precipitation increase due to the climate shift had a significant effect on the changes in annual discharge of the largest rivers of the UPRB. However, the results suggest that the impact of the precipitation increase on the discharge exceeded that of the LUCC. Between 1960 and 1985 the LUCC accounts for about 16% of the increase of the median annual discharge, whereas climate shift accounts for an increase of about 32%. These findings, suggesting a more relevant role for the climate, are consistent with two recent water crisis experienced by the country in the last decades, caused by prolonged below-normal rainfall throughout 2001/2002 and again in 2014/2015.

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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Hydroclimatic change, Large river systems, SWAT model
in
Journal of Environmental Management
volume
309
article number
114651
pages
12 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85124215397
  • pmid:35151138
ISSN
0301-4797
DOI
10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114651
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Funding Information: This study was financed in part by the “Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil” ( CAPES ) - Finance Code 001 (Process # 88887.115875/2015–01) and “Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo” FAPESP (process #2015/03804–9). The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge “Agência Nacional de Águas” (ANA) for providing the precipitation and discharge data. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors
id
7bcf70f2-64ea-49c6-ab2f-1e3733223ec6
date added to LUP
2022-02-21 17:38:06
date last changed
2024-04-18 05:53:37
@article{7bcf70f2-64ea-49c6-ab2f-1e3733223ec6,
  abstract     = {{<p>Assessing the relative contribution of Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) and climate changes on runoff still represents a great challenge for water resources management. This issue is particularly critical for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), one of the most important basins in South America and responsible for most of the production of food, ethanol, and electricity generation in Brazil. In this paper, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of both forcings. The simulation period included a time of great importance for climate studies, known as the 1970s global climate shift, and of great impact on river discharge within the UPRB. Three land use and cover scenarios were assigned to the 1961–1990 period of simulations, representing land use and cover during a pristine period (around the Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. Thirteen years of precipitation before and after the climate shift (considered to be the period 1974–1977) were analyzed and compared. Results showed a precipitation increase for the basin in general after the climate shift. The increase in rainfall reached up to 15% in many northern areas and more than 20% in the southern parts of the basin. By comparing all simulations, results indicate that both LUCC and precipitation increase due to the climate shift had a significant effect on the changes in annual discharge of the largest rivers of the UPRB. However, the results suggest that the impact of the precipitation increase on the discharge exceeded that of the LUCC. Between 1960 and 1985 the LUCC accounts for about 16% of the increase of the median annual discharge, whereas climate shift accounts for an increase of about 32%. These findings, suggesting a more relevant role for the climate, are consistent with two recent water crisis experienced by the country in the last decades, caused by prolonged below-normal rainfall throughout 2001/2002 and again in 2014/2015.</p>}},
  author       = {{Abou Rafee, Sameh A. and Uvo, Cintia B. and Martins, Jorge A. and Machado, Carolyne B. and Freitas, Edmilson D.}},
  issn         = {{0301-4797}},
  keywords     = {{Hydroclimatic change; Large river systems; SWAT model}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{05}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Journal of Environmental Management}},
  title        = {{Land Use and Cover Changes versus climate shift : Who is the main player in river discharge? A case study in the Upper Paraná River Basin}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114651}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114651}},
  volume       = {{309}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}