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Inquiry and deliberation in judicial systems : The problem of jury size

Angere, Staffan LU ; Olsson, Erik J LU and Genot, Emmanuel LU (2016) p.35-56
Abstract
We raise the question whether there is a rigorous argument favoring one jury system over another. We provide a Bayesian model of deliberating juries that allows for computer simulation for the purpose of studying the effect of jury size and required majority on the quality of jury decision making. We introduce the idea of jury value (J-value), a kind of epistemic value which takes into account the unique characteristics and asymmetries involved in jury voting. Our computer simulations indicate that requiring more than a > 50 % majority should be avoided. Moreover, while it is in principle always better to have a larger jury, given a > 50 % required majority, the value of having more than 12–15 jurors is likely to be negligible.... (More)
We raise the question whether there is a rigorous argument favoring one jury system over another. We provide a Bayesian model of deliberating juries that allows for computer simulation for the purpose of studying the effect of jury size and required majority on the quality of jury decision making. We introduce the idea of jury value (J-value), a kind of epistemic value which takes into account the unique characteristics and asymmetries involved in jury voting. Our computer simulations indicate that requiring more than a > 50 % majority should be avoided. Moreover, while it is in principle always better to have a larger jury, given a > 50 % required majority, the value of having more than 12–15 jurors is likely to be negligible. Finally, we provide a formula for calculating the optimal jury size given the cost, economic or otherwise, of adding another juror. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Perspectives on Interrogative Models of Inquiry : Developments in Inquiry and Questions - Developments in Inquiry and Questions
editor
Baskent, Can
pages
35 - 56
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85105989858
ISBN
978-3-319-20762-9
978-3-319-20761-2
DOI
10.1007/978-3-319-20762-9_3
project
Collective Competence in Deliberative Groups: On the Epistemological Foundation of Democracy
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
7c8e0a53-908f-4a08-b6d4-76488c039143 (old id 4580033)
date added to LUP
2016-04-04 10:12:22
date last changed
2022-01-29 19:59:03
@inbook{7c8e0a53-908f-4a08-b6d4-76488c039143,
  abstract     = {{We raise the question whether there is a rigorous argument favoring one jury system over another. We provide a Bayesian model of deliberating juries that allows for computer simulation for the purpose of studying the effect of jury size and required majority on the quality of jury decision making. We introduce the idea of jury value (J-value), a kind of epistemic value which takes into account the unique characteristics and asymmetries involved in jury voting. Our computer simulations indicate that requiring more than a > 50 % majority should be avoided. Moreover, while it is in principle always better to have a larger jury, given a > 50 % required majority, the value of having more than 12–15 jurors is likely to be negligible. Finally, we provide a formula for calculating the optimal jury size given the cost, economic or otherwise, of adding another juror.}},
  author       = {{Angere, Staffan and Olsson, Erik J and Genot, Emmanuel}},
  booktitle    = {{Perspectives on Interrogative Models of Inquiry : Developments in Inquiry and Questions}},
  editor       = {{Baskent, Can}},
  isbn         = {{978-3-319-20762-9}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{35--56}},
  publisher    = {{Springer}},
  title        = {{Inquiry and deliberation in judicial systems : The problem of jury size}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/5487101/7759741.pdf}},
  doi          = {{10.1007/978-3-319-20762-9_3}},
  year         = {{2016}},
}