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What could the next 40 years hold for global tourism?

Scott, Daniel and Gössling, Stefan LU (2015) In Tourism Recreation Resarch 40(3). p.269-285
Abstract
Over the past 40 years, tourism has developed to become a sector of global economic, social and environmental significance. This paper provides a retrospective overview of the massive expansion and evolving geography of international and domestic tourism over the last 40 years, including the factors that enabled and challenged this growth, in order to contextualize a discussion of what the next 40 years may hold for global tourism. Social, technical, economic, environmental and political dimensions influencing tourism over the past and future 40 years are identified, together with a synthesis of available long-range scenarios of tourism futures to 2050. Comparisons with selected non-tourism scenarios suggest that current assessments of... (More)
Over the past 40 years, tourism has developed to become a sector of global economic, social and environmental significance. This paper provides a retrospective overview of the massive expansion and evolving geography of international and domestic tourism over the last 40 years, including the factors that enabled and challenged this growth, in order to contextualize a discussion of what the next 40 years may hold for global tourism. Social, technical, economic, environmental and political dimensions influencing tourism over the past and future 40 years are identified, together with a synthesis of available long-range scenarios of tourism futures to 2050. Comparisons with selected non-tourism scenarios suggest that current assessments of tourism futures are limited in scope, and that the tourism sector may have much to learn from scenario building and forecasting from other economic sectors and analyses of global grand challenges. Reconciling anticipated tourism growth with the sustainability and development imperatives of the next 40 years are discussed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
drivers of tourism change, scenarios, sustainability, tourism futures
in
Tourism Recreation Resarch
volume
40
issue
3
pages
269 - 285
publisher
Centre for Tourism Research and Development
external identifiers
  • scopus:84997703662
ISSN
0250-8281
DOI
10.1080/02508281.2015.1075739
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
825d09ba-5e90-4ed8-8997-0a8912e5b221 (old id 8168362)
date added to LUP
2015-11-11 16:19:55
date last changed
2017-09-17 03:47:49
@article{825d09ba-5e90-4ed8-8997-0a8912e5b221,
  abstract     = {Over the past 40 years, tourism has developed to become a sector of global economic, social and environmental significance. This paper provides a retrospective overview of the massive expansion and evolving geography of international and domestic tourism over the last 40 years, including the factors that enabled and challenged this growth, in order to contextualize a discussion of what the next 40 years may hold for global tourism. Social, technical, economic, environmental and political dimensions influencing tourism over the past and future 40 years are identified, together with a synthesis of available long-range scenarios of tourism futures to 2050. Comparisons with selected non-tourism scenarios suggest that current assessments of tourism futures are limited in scope, and that the tourism sector may have much to learn from scenario building and forecasting from other economic sectors and analyses of global grand challenges. Reconciling anticipated tourism growth with the sustainability and development imperatives of the next 40 years are discussed.},
  author       = {Scott, Daniel and Gössling, Stefan},
  issn         = {0250-8281},
  keyword      = {drivers of tourism change,scenarios,sustainability,tourism futures},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {269--285},
  publisher    = {Centre for Tourism Research and Development},
  series       = {Tourism Recreation Resarch},
  title        = {What could the next 40 years hold for global tourism?},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2015.1075739},
  volume       = {40},
  year         = {2015},
}