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Patterns and Drivers of Regional Crop Production in Chad

Nilsson, Erik LU (2018)
Abstract
Agriculture constitutes the largest economic sector and professional occupation in Chad, and is undergoing rapid changes due to processes of population increase, institutional reforms, conflicts in neighbouring countries, increasingly globalized trade networks, and environmental changes. But despite their importance for livelihoods and economic growth, the specific patterns and drivers of change in the agricultural sector are however poorly understood. This has mostly been a result of low data availability and a lack of comprehensive research programs to address the agricultural changes of various spatial scales. By analysing crop statistics on a level of detail that have not been done before, this thesis has been able to show how the... (More)
Agriculture constitutes the largest economic sector and professional occupation in Chad, and is undergoing rapid changes due to processes of population increase, institutional reforms, conflicts in neighbouring countries, increasingly globalized trade networks, and environmental changes. But despite their importance for livelihoods and economic growth, the specific patterns and drivers of change in the agricultural sector are however poorly understood. This has mostly been a result of low data availability and a lack of comprehensive research programs to address the agricultural changes of various spatial scales. By analysing crop statistics on a level of detail that have not been done before, this thesis has been able to show how the agricultural production is changing over time and between the different administrative regions in Chad.
In general it found that the harvested area has been increasing faster than the yield, and that a majority of the changes have happened under abrupt rather than gradual changes. By using this detailed understanding of the patterns of change, and by combining numerous kinds of relevant datasets on hydrology, demographics, international aid, market prices, conflicts, and agricultural practices, this thesis has evaluated potential factors of these changes with an extent and detail that have not been done before. This evaluation have showed that variations in hydrological conditions, market prices, and food security conditions can be linked to the variability in crop production. By looking at descriptions of livelihood conditions in agricultural areas, factors such as material and technical farm support have been linked to abrupt changes in the crop production for specific areas. Also, the differences in long term change between the administrative regions in Chad have been explained by differences in demographic factors and amount of international aid received.
These and similar results are relevant to increase the understanding of how agricultural societies evolve in Chad, and how strategies and interventions can be developed to assist local communities in their objectives. More specifically, the results can be used to evaluate the effects of certain events or policies, and to improve seasonal predictions for crop production and food availability. Beyond Chad, the results and methods developed for this thesis are relevant for application in the wider Sahel, where the agro-ecological and institutional conditions share some key characteristics.
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Abstract (Swedish)
Jordbruk utgör den största ekonomiska sektorn och har den högsta sysselsättningsgraden i Tchad. Samtidigt så genomgår den hastiga förändringar på grund av populationsökning, institutionella reformer, konflikter i grannländerna, ökande globaliserade handelsnätverk, samt miljöförändringar. Men trots dess betydelse för lokala uppehällen och ekonomisk tillväxt, så är de specifika förändringsmönstrena och deras drivkrafter i jordbrukssektorn dåligt förstådda. Detta är främst ett resultat av den låga datatillgången och en avsaknad av omfattande forskningsprogram som angriper förändringarna i jordbrukssektorn på olika spatiala skalor. Genom att analysera jordbruksstatistik på en förbättrad detaljnivå så har den här avhandlingen kunnat visa hur... (More)
Jordbruk utgör den största ekonomiska sektorn och har den högsta sysselsättningsgraden i Tchad. Samtidigt så genomgår den hastiga förändringar på grund av populationsökning, institutionella reformer, konflikter i grannländerna, ökande globaliserade handelsnätverk, samt miljöförändringar. Men trots dess betydelse för lokala uppehällen och ekonomisk tillväxt, så är de specifika förändringsmönstrena och deras drivkrafter i jordbrukssektorn dåligt förstådda. Detta är främst ett resultat av den låga datatillgången och en avsaknad av omfattande forskningsprogram som angriper förändringarna i jordbrukssektorn på olika spatiala skalor. Genom att analysera jordbruksstatistik på en förbättrad detaljnivå så har den här avhandlingen kunnat visa hur jordbruksproduktionen förändras över tid samt mellan regionerna i Tchad. Den visar att jordbruksarealen har förändrats snabbare än skörden per areal, samt att förändringarna främst har realiserats genom abrupta processer, istället för gradvisa. Genom att använda den ökade detaljförståelsen för förändringsmönstrena, och med hjälp av en kombination av relevanta dataregister över hydrologi, demografi, utvecklingsbistånd, marknadspriser, konflikter, samt jordbrukstekniker, så har den här avhandlingen utvärderat potentiella förändringsfaktorer med en omfattning och detalj som inte har gjorts innan. Denna utvärdering har visat att variation i hydrologi, marknadspriser, samt matsäkerhet kan kopplas till variationer i jordbruksproduktionen. Genom att gå igenom beskrivningar av lokala jordbrukssamhällen, så har faktorer som materiellt och tekniska jordbruksstöd kunnat kopplas abrupta förändringar i jordbruksproduktionen i specifika områden. Skillnader i långtgående förändringar mellan de olika regionerna har förklarats genom skillnader i demografiska faktorer och erhållet utvecklingsbistånd. Dessa och liknande resultat är relevant för en ökad förståelse för hur jordbrukssamhällen i Tchad förändras, och hur strategier och interventioner kan utformas för att bättre assistera de lokala samhällena i deras mål. Mer specifikt så kan metoderna användas för utvärdera särskilda händelser eller strateger, och för att förbättra säsongsbaserade förutsägelser om jordbruksproduktion och mattillgänglighet. Förutom i Tchad så är resultaten även relevanta i stora delar av Sahel, där agronomiska, ekologiska och samhällsekonomiska förhållanden delar många grundläggande faktorer (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Professor Magrin, Géraud, University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France
organization
alternative title
Mönster och drivkrafter inom regional jordbruksproduktion in Chad
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
agricultural systems, crop production, drivers, trend analysis, variability, regional analysis, Sahel
pages
295 pages
publisher
Faculty of Engineering, LTH at Lund University
defense location
Lecture hall B, building V, John Ericssons väg 1, Lund University, Faculty of Engineering LTH
defense date
2019-01-18 10:15:00
ISBN
978-91-7753-938-4
978-91-7753-939-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
878268d0-aa7e-473e-97a9-25f7cbb1fe8e
date added to LUP
2018-12-19 11:58:24
date last changed
2019-07-23 10:22:31
@phdthesis{878268d0-aa7e-473e-97a9-25f7cbb1fe8e,
  abstract     = {Agriculture constitutes the largest economic sector and professional occupation in Chad, and is undergoing rapid changes due to processes of population increase, institutional reforms, conflicts in neighbouring countries, increasingly globalized trade networks, and environmental changes. But despite their importance for livelihoods and economic growth, the specific patterns and drivers of change in the agricultural sector are however poorly understood. This has mostly been a result of low data availability and a lack of comprehensive research programs to address the agricultural changes of various spatial scales. By analysing crop statistics on a level of detail that have not been done before, this thesis has been able to show how the agricultural production is changing over time and between the different administrative regions in Chad. <br/>In general it found that the harvested area has been increasing faster than the yield, and that a majority of the changes have happened under abrupt rather than gradual changes. By using this detailed understanding of the patterns of change, and by combining numerous kinds of relevant datasets on hydrology, demographics, international aid, market prices, conflicts, and agricultural practices, this thesis has evaluated potential factors of these changes with an extent and detail that have not been done before. This evaluation have showed that variations in hydrological conditions, market prices, and food security conditions can be linked to the variability in crop production. By looking at descriptions of livelihood conditions in agricultural areas, factors such as material and technical farm support have been linked to abrupt changes in the crop production for specific areas. Also, the differences in long term change between the administrative regions in Chad have been explained by differences in demographic factors and amount of international aid received. <br/>These and similar results are relevant to increase the understanding of how agricultural societies evolve in Chad, and how strategies and interventions can be developed to assist local communities in their objectives. More specifically, the results can be used to evaluate the effects of certain events or policies, and to improve seasonal predictions for crop production and food availability. Beyond Chad, the results and methods developed for this thesis are relevant for application in the wider Sahel, where the agro-ecological and institutional conditions share some key characteristics.<br/>},
  author       = {Nilsson, Erik},
  isbn         = {978-91-7753-938-4},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {12},
  publisher    = {Faculty of Engineering, LTH at Lund University},
  school       = {Lund University},
  title        = {Patterns and Drivers of Regional Crop Production in Chad},
  url          = {https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/ws/files/55726887/Patterns_and_drivers_of_regional_crop_production_in_Chad_Erik_N_Kappa_2018.pdf},
  year         = {2018},
}