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Nonlinear dynamics in agricultural systems in Chad

Nilsson, Erik LU and Uvo, Cintia LU (2018) In African Geographical Review
Abstract

Changes to agricultural systems in Sub-Saharan Africa are subject to a wide range of drivers, often resulting in rapid and nonlinear dynamics. Such dynamics are however rarely recognized in studies of trends and drivers, which usually rely on assumptions of gradual progressions, and often using highly aggregated data. This paper addresses this lack of recognition and understanding of nonlinear processes in agricultural systems in Sub-Saharan Africa by statistically identifying breakpoints and trends in regional crop production data in Chad for 1983–2016, which also makes it the most extensive and detailed study of the agricultural sector in Chad to date. By summarizing and visualizing the identified breakpoints and trends of a large... (More)

Changes to agricultural systems in Sub-Saharan Africa are subject to a wide range of drivers, often resulting in rapid and nonlinear dynamics. Such dynamics are however rarely recognized in studies of trends and drivers, which usually rely on assumptions of gradual progressions, and often using highly aggregated data. This paper addresses this lack of recognition and understanding of nonlinear processes in agricultural systems in Sub-Saharan Africa by statistically identifying breakpoints and trends in regional crop production data in Chad for 1983–2016, which also makes it the most extensive and detailed study of the agricultural sector in Chad to date. By summarizing and visualizing the identified breakpoints and trends of a large group of variables in a concise and informative way, the roles of both abrupt and gradual processes are made clear. Results show that the progressions in the data predominantly have been driven by abrupt changes with lasting effects rather than gradual changes, contrary to what analyses on higher levels of aggregation would conclude. The potency of the developed methodology lies in its capacity to identify and summarize nonlinear progressions in agricultural systems constituted by a large set of variables, by separating the influence of abrupt and gradual processes.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
agricultural systems, breakpoints, Chad, nonlinear progressions, regional analysis, trend analysis
in
African Geographical Review
publisher
Taylor & Francis
external identifiers
  • scopus:85051958411
ISSN
1937-6812
DOI
10.1080/19376812.2018.1485585
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
cdaa9a05-e569-463b-8108-2881dd1180fe
date added to LUP
2018-09-28 08:39:57
date last changed
2020-01-22 07:14:11
@article{cdaa9a05-e569-463b-8108-2881dd1180fe,
  abstract     = {<p>Changes to agricultural systems in Sub-Saharan Africa are subject to a wide range of drivers, often resulting in rapid and nonlinear dynamics. Such dynamics are however rarely recognized in studies of trends and drivers, which usually rely on assumptions of gradual progressions, and often using highly aggregated data. This paper addresses this lack of recognition and understanding of nonlinear processes in agricultural systems in Sub-Saharan Africa by statistically identifying breakpoints and trends in regional crop production data in Chad for 1983–2016, which also makes it the most extensive and detailed study of the agricultural sector in Chad to date. By summarizing and visualizing the identified breakpoints and trends of a large group of variables in a concise and informative way, the roles of both abrupt and gradual processes are made clear. Results show that the progressions in the data predominantly have been driven by abrupt changes with lasting effects rather than gradual changes, contrary to what analyses on higher levels of aggregation would conclude. The potency of the developed methodology lies in its capacity to identify and summarize nonlinear progressions in agricultural systems constituted by a large set of variables, by separating the influence of abrupt and gradual processes.</p>},
  author       = {Nilsson, Erik and Uvo, Cintia},
  issn         = {1937-6812},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {08},
  publisher    = {Taylor & Francis},
  series       = {African Geographical Review},
  title        = {Nonlinear dynamics in agricultural systems in Chad},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19376812.2018.1485585},
  doi          = {10.1080/19376812.2018.1485585},
  year         = {2018},
}