The crime kaleidoscope revisited: How spatial DNA and demographic patterns shape urban risk in ten Swedish cities
Camacho Doyle, Maria ; Puur, Mia LU and Guldåker, Nicklas LU
(2026)
In Applied Geography
194.
p.1-13
- Abstract
- This study examines how environmental risk factors for assault are expressed across cities and demographic groups, using risk terrain modeling (RTM) applied to ten Swedish cities. The analyses identify recurrent environmental features, such as convenience stores, bus stops, restaurants that frequently concentrate assault risk. However, the magnitude, mechanisms, and spatial reach of these associations vary markedly across cities. These differences appear to reflect variation in spatial configuration, land-use patterns, mobility flows, and urban form, consistent with Crime Pattern Theory notions of environmental backcloth and Routine Activity Theory perspectives on differential exposure due to routines. Demographic analyses reveal... (More)
- This study examines how environmental risk factors for assault are expressed across cities and demographic groups, using risk terrain modeling (RTM) applied to ten Swedish cities. The analyses identify recurrent environmental features, such as convenience stores, bus stops, restaurants that frequently concentrate assault risk. However, the magnitude, mechanisms, and spatial reach of these associations vary markedly across cities. These differences appear to reflect variation in spatial configuration, land-use patterns, mobility flows, and urban form, consistent with Crime Pattern Theory notions of environmental backcloth and Routine Activity Theory perspectives on differential exposure due to routines. Demographic analyses reveal overlapping but distinct risk environments for men, women, adults, and youth: adults are associated with a broader range of places, whereas youth risk is concentrated around schools, recreational sites, and everyday retail. Shared features often operate through different processes and spatial scales across groups. Overall, the findings indicate that assault risk reflect interactions between environmental features and local spatial–social contexts rather than arising from universal “risky places”. Cities exhibit diverse risk configurations that are further differentiated by age and gender, meaning that population groups experience distinct risk environments even within the same urban space. These results suggest that prevention and policing strategies should be tailored to local spatial structures, demographic routines, and the scales at which risk occurs. Place-sensitive environmental design, community measures, and spatially informed policing aligned with local patterns have strong potential to improve the precision and effectiveness of prevention efforts. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/88868b2c-daed-4378-9c22-477243da4a6d
- author
- Camacho Doyle, Maria
; Puur, Mia
LU
and Guldåker, Nicklas
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-07-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Assault, Crime-pattern-theory, Routine-activity-theory, Environmental-criminology, Urban-geography, Risk-terrain-modeling, Demography
- in
- Applied Geography
- volume
- 194
- article number
- 104101
- pages
- 14 pages
- publisher
- Elsevier
- ISSN
- 0143-6228
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.104101
- project
- Developed crisis preparedness to lead, communicate and coordinate place-based measures against system-threatening crime
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 88868b2c-daed-4378-9c22-477243da4a6d
- date added to LUP
- 2026-07-02 12:07:02
- date last changed
- 2026-07-03 11:10:19
@article{88868b2c-daed-4378-9c22-477243da4a6d,
abstract = {{This study examines how environmental risk factors for assault are expressed across cities and demographic groups, using risk terrain modeling (RTM) applied to ten Swedish cities. The analyses identify recurrent environmental features, such as convenience stores, bus stops, restaurants that frequently concentrate assault risk. However, the magnitude, mechanisms, and spatial reach of these associations vary markedly across cities. These differences appear to reflect variation in spatial configuration, land-use patterns, mobility flows, and urban form, consistent with Crime Pattern Theory notions of environmental backcloth and Routine Activity Theory perspectives on differential exposure due to routines. Demographic analyses reveal overlapping but distinct risk environments for men, women, adults, and youth: adults are associated with a broader range of places, whereas youth risk is concentrated around schools, recreational sites, and everyday retail. Shared features often operate through different processes and spatial scales across groups. Overall, the findings indicate that assault risk reflect interactions between environmental features and local spatial–social contexts rather than arising from universal “risky places”. Cities exhibit diverse risk configurations that are further differentiated by age and gender, meaning that population groups experience distinct risk environments even within the same urban space. These results suggest that prevention and policing strategies should be tailored to local spatial structures, demographic routines, and the scales at which risk occurs. Place-sensitive environmental design, community measures, and spatially informed policing aligned with local patterns have strong potential to improve the precision and effectiveness of prevention efforts.}},
author = {{Camacho Doyle, Maria and Puur, Mia and Guldåker, Nicklas}},
issn = {{0143-6228}},
keywords = {{Assault; Crime-pattern-theory; Routine-activity-theory; Environmental-criminology; Urban-geography; Risk-terrain-modeling; Demography}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{07}},
pages = {{1--13}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Applied Geography}},
title = {{The crime kaleidoscope revisited: How spatial DNA and demographic patterns shape urban risk in ten Swedish cities}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.104101}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.104101}},
volume = {{194}},
year = {{2026}},
}