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International variations in hip fracture probabilities: Implications for risk assessment

Kanis, JA; Johnell, Olof LU ; De Laet, C; Jonsson, B; Oden, A and Ogelsby, AK (2002) In Journal of Bone and Mineral Research 17(7). p.1237-1244
Abstract
It is recommended that intervention thresholds should be based on absolute fracture risk, but there is a large variation in hip fracture incidence from different regions of the world. The aim of this study was to examine heterogeneity of hip fracture probability in different regions from recent estimates of hip fracture incidence and mortality to adjust intervention thresholds. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture were computed in men and women at 10-year intervals from the age of 50 years and lifetime risks at the age of 50 years from the hazard functions of hip fracture and death. Lifetime risk at the age of 50 years varied from 1% in women from Turkey to 28.5% in women from Sweden. High lifetime risks in women were associated with... (More)
It is recommended that intervention thresholds should be based on absolute fracture risk, but there is a large variation in hip fracture incidence from different regions of the world. The aim of this study was to examine heterogeneity of hip fracture probability in different regions from recent estimates of hip fracture incidence and mortality to adjust intervention thresholds. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture were computed in men and women at 10-year intervals from the age of 50 years and lifetime risks at the age of 50 years from the hazard functions of hip fracture and death. Lifetime risk at the age of 50 years varied from 1% in women from Turkey to 28.5% in women from Sweden. High lifetime risks in women were associated with high lifetime risks in men (r = 0.83). There also were significant correlations of 10-year risk at any age between men and women. Ten-year probability was standardized to that of men and women from Sweden (set at 1.0). There was a 15-fold range in 10-year probability from 1.24 in Norway to 0.08 in Chile. Countries were categorized by 10-year probabilities comprising very high risk (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and the United States), high risk (China [Taiwan {TW}], Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Greece, Canada, The Netherlands, Hungary, Singapore, Italy, United Kingdom, Kuwait, Australia, and Portugal), medium risk (China [Hong Kong {HK}], France, Japan, Spain, Argentina, and China), and low risk (Turkey, Korea, Venezuela, and Chile). The categorization of hip fracture probabilities can be used to adjust intervention thresholds based on age, sex, and relative risk from a reference population such as Sweden. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
10-year probability, lifetime risk, threshold, intervention, hip fracture risk
in
Journal of Bone and Mineral Research
volume
17
issue
7
pages
1237 - 1244
publisher
AMBMR
external identifiers
  • wos:000176427200013
  • pmid:12096837
  • scopus:0035991256
ISSN
1523-4681
DOI
10.1359/jbmr.2002.17.7.1237
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3a3e79a9-125b-4369-bcf8-d01ec6a5d445 (old id 892908)
date added to LUP
2008-01-23 16:51:15
date last changed
2017-12-10 03:51:10
@article{3a3e79a9-125b-4369-bcf8-d01ec6a5d445,
  abstract     = {It is recommended that intervention thresholds should be based on absolute fracture risk, but there is a large variation in hip fracture incidence from different regions of the world. The aim of this study was to examine heterogeneity of hip fracture probability in different regions from recent estimates of hip fracture incidence and mortality to adjust intervention thresholds. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture were computed in men and women at 10-year intervals from the age of 50 years and lifetime risks at the age of 50 years from the hazard functions of hip fracture and death. Lifetime risk at the age of 50 years varied from 1% in women from Turkey to 28.5% in women from Sweden. High lifetime risks in women were associated with high lifetime risks in men (r = 0.83). There also were significant correlations of 10-year risk at any age between men and women. Ten-year probability was standardized to that of men and women from Sweden (set at 1.0). There was a 15-fold range in 10-year probability from 1.24 in Norway to 0.08 in Chile. Countries were categorized by 10-year probabilities comprising very high risk (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and the United States), high risk (China [Taiwan {TW}], Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Greece, Canada, The Netherlands, Hungary, Singapore, Italy, United Kingdom, Kuwait, Australia, and Portugal), medium risk (China [Hong Kong {HK}], France, Japan, Spain, Argentina, and China), and low risk (Turkey, Korea, Venezuela, and Chile). The categorization of hip fracture probabilities can be used to adjust intervention thresholds based on age, sex, and relative risk from a reference population such as Sweden.},
  author       = {Kanis, JA and Johnell, Olof and De Laet, C and Jonsson, B and Oden, A and Ogelsby, AK},
  issn         = {1523-4681},
  keyword      = {10-year probability,lifetime risk,threshold,intervention,hip fracture risk},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {7},
  pages        = {1237--1244},
  publisher    = {AMBMR},
  series       = {Journal of Bone and Mineral Research},
  title        = {International variations in hip fracture probabilities: Implications for risk assessment},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1359/jbmr.2002.17.7.1237},
  volume       = {17},
  year         = {2002},
}