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Adverse Early-Life Conditions and Their Impact on the Marriage Market and Social Mobility: The Poznań Birth Cohort, 1830–1855

Antosik, Szymon LU orcid ; Bengtsson, Tommy LU ; Antosik, Piotr and Liczbińska, Grażyna (2026) In Lund Papers in Economic Demography
Abstract
This study investigates the long-term social consequences of early-life exposure to adverse
conditions in nineteenth-century Poznań. Using linked individual-level records from the
Poznań Historical Population Database for birth cohorts 1830–1855, we examine how
prenatal stress, infant mortality, early-childhood disease burden, and fluctuations in rye prices
influenced the likelihood of marriage and intergenerational social mobility at first marriage,
up to age 45. Logistic regression models indicate that adverse prenatal conditions, proxied by
a low sex ratio at birth, and high rye price in the first year of life significantly decreased the
probability of entering marriage. Unexpectedly, high rye prices during... (More)
This study investigates the long-term social consequences of early-life exposure to adverse
conditions in nineteenth-century Poznań. Using linked individual-level records from the
Poznań Historical Population Database for birth cohorts 1830–1855, we examine how
prenatal stress, infant mortality, early-childhood disease burden, and fluctuations in rye prices
influenced the likelihood of marriage and intergenerational social mobility at first marriage,
up to age 45. Logistic regression models indicate that adverse prenatal conditions, proxied by
a low sex ratio at birth, and high rye price in the first year of life significantly decreased the
probability of entering marriage. Unexpectedly, high rye prices during gestation were
associated with a higher likelihood of marriage, suggesting that more resilient individuals may
have been more likely to survive. Analyses of social mobility at first marriage show limited
overall changes in status, consistent with positive selection into marriage, although
individuals exposed to disease in early childhood were less likely to experience downward
mobility. These findings highlight the complex interplay of scarring and selection
mechanisms through which early-life adversity shaped demographic and socioeconomic
outcomes. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of family formation and social
stratification in urban Europe (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Working paper/Preprint
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Environmental Stressors, Marriage market, Social Mobility, Nineteenth-century urban history, Central and Eastern Europe
in
Lund Papers in Economic Demography
issue
2026:1
pages
44 pages
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
8b4501a2-c36c-40dc-af3c-aa0d7e98141a
alternative location
https://www.lusem.lu.se/sites/lusem.lu.se/files/2026-02/LPED%202026%201.pdf
date added to LUP
2026-05-06 11:49:22
date last changed
2026-05-06 11:49:22
@misc{8b4501a2-c36c-40dc-af3c-aa0d7e98141a,
  abstract     = {{This study investigates the long-term social consequences of early-life exposure to adverse<br/>conditions in nineteenth-century Poznań. Using linked individual-level records from the<br/>Poznań Historical Population Database for birth cohorts 1830–1855, we examine how<br/>prenatal stress, infant mortality, early-childhood disease burden, and fluctuations in rye prices<br/>influenced the likelihood of marriage and intergenerational social mobility at first marriage,<br/>up to age 45. Logistic regression models indicate that adverse prenatal conditions, proxied by<br/>a low sex ratio at birth, and high rye price in the first year of life significantly decreased the<br/>probability of entering marriage. Unexpectedly, high rye prices during gestation were<br/>associated with a higher likelihood of marriage, suggesting that more resilient individuals may<br/>have been more likely to survive. Analyses of social mobility at first marriage show limited<br/>overall changes in status, consistent with positive selection into marriage, although<br/>individuals exposed to disease in early childhood were less likely to experience downward<br/>mobility. These findings highlight the complex interplay of scarring and selection<br/>mechanisms through which early-life adversity shaped demographic and socioeconomic<br/>outcomes. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of family formation and social<br/>stratification in urban Europe}},
  author       = {{Antosik, Szymon and Bengtsson, Tommy and Antosik, Piotr and Liczbińska, Grażyna}},
  keywords     = {{Environmental Stressors; Marriage market; Social Mobility; Nineteenth-century urban history; Central and Eastern Europe}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{2026:1}},
  series       = {{Lund Papers in Economic Demography}},
  title        = {{Adverse Early-Life Conditions and Their Impact on the Marriage Market and Social Mobility: The Poznań Birth Cohort, 1830–1855}},
  url          = {{https://www.lusem.lu.se/sites/lusem.lu.se/files/2026-02/LPED%202026%201.pdf}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}