Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
(2017) In The Lancet Planetary Health 1(9). p.360-367- Abstract
Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated... (More)
Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. Funding: UK Medical Research Council.
(Less)
- author
- organization
- publishing date
- 2017
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- The Lancet Planetary Health
- volume
- 1
- issue
- 9
- pages
- 360 - 367
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85042434896
- ISSN
- 2542-5196
- DOI
- 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 8cf131fc-9531-4acc-80cc-dc6bb9cc268b
- date added to LUP
- 2022-10-27 13:41:25
- date last changed
- 2022-10-27 13:41:25
@article{8cf131fc-9531-4acc-80cc-dc6bb9cc268b,
abstract = {{<p>Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. Funding: UK Medical Research Council.</p>}},
author = {{Gasparrini, Antonio and Guo, Yuming and Sera, Francesco and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria and Huber, Veronika and Tong, Shilu and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline and Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario and Lavigne, Eric and Matus Correa, Patricia and Valdes Ortega, Nicolas and Kan, Haidong and Osorio, Samuel and Kyselý, Jan and Urban, Aleš and Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. and Ryti, Niilo R.I. and Pascal, Mathilde and Goodman, Patrick G. and Zeka, Ariana and Michelozzi, Paola and Scortichini, Matteo and Hashizume, Masahiro and Honda, Yasushi and Hurtado-Diaz, Magali and Cesar Cruz, Julio and Seposo, Xerxes and Kim, Ho and Tobias, Aurelio and Iñiguez, Carmen and Forsberg, Bertil and Åström, Daniel Oudin and Ragettli, Martina S. and Guo, Yue Leon and Wu, Chang fu and Zanobetti, Antonella and Schwartz, Joel and Bell, Michelle L. and Dang, Tran Ngoc and Van, Dung Do and Heaviside, Clare and Vardoulakis, Sotiris and Hajat, Shakoor and Haines, Andy and Armstrong, Ben}},
issn = {{2542-5196}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{9}},
pages = {{360--367}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{The Lancet Planetary Health}},
title = {{Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0}},
doi = {{10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0}},
volume = {{1}},
year = {{2017}},
}