The End of a Rocky Road? Exploring Four Decades of Reduced Economic Shrinking in Latin America, 1970–2016
Andersson, Martin LU
; Palacio, Andrés
LU
; von Borries, Alvaro
LU
and Rohne Till, Emelie
LU
(2026)
In Cogent Economics and Finance
14(1).
- Abstract
- Recent research suggests that long-term economic prosperity depends less on rapid growth than on reducing the frequency of economic shrinking. This paper investigates why episodes of economic shrinking declined in 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1970 and 2016; a region that has received comparatively little attention in the emerging literature on economic shrinking. Using a theoretical framework based on open access orders and social capabilities, this study examines four potential drivers of Latin America’s reduced economic shrinking: autonomy, accountability, inclusion, and transformation. These are tested empirically using survival models applied to 430 shrinking episodes across the full sample and four regional... (More)
- Recent research suggests that long-term economic prosperity depends less on rapid growth than on reducing the frequency of economic shrinking. This paper investigates why episodes of economic shrinking declined in 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1970 and 2016; a region that has received comparatively little attention in the emerging literature on economic shrinking. Using a theoretical framework based on open access orders and social capabilities, this study examines four potential drivers of Latin America’s reduced economic shrinking: autonomy, accountability, inclusion, and transformation. These are tested empirically using survival models applied to 430 shrinking episodes across the full sample and four regional subsamples. The results indicate that the decline in economic shrinking was driven primarily by improvements in autonomy (central bank independence) and accountability (educational expenditure). By contrast, the form of transformation experienced in the region, concentrated in natural resource–based sectors, was associated with increased shrinking risk, and inclusion did not emerge as a robust predictor in the full sample. These findings suggest that Latin America’s reduced economic contractions during the period contributed to a foundation for transitioning toward open access orders. However, without stronger progress in all four social capabilities, in particular transformation, this foundation remains fragile. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/93d05326-5ee0-4e33-9490-6411622a9dab
- author
- Andersson, Martin
LU
; Palacio, Andrés
LU
; von Borries, Alvaro
LU
and Rohne Till, Emelie
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-09-14
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Economic shrinking, resilience, open access orders, social capabilities, Latin America and the Caribbean
- in
- Cogent Economics and Finance
- volume
- 14
- issue
- 1
- publisher
- Cogent OA
- ISSN
- 2332-2039
- DOI
- 10.1080/23322039.2026.2728272
- project
- Resilience to economic shrinking: A social capability approach to processes of catching up in the developing world since the 1950s
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 93d05326-5ee0-4e33-9490-6411622a9dab
- date added to LUP
- 2026-08-31 15:41:37
- date last changed
- 2026-09-14 13:59:16
@article{93d05326-5ee0-4e33-9490-6411622a9dab,
abstract = {{Recent research suggests that long-term economic prosperity depends less on rapid growth than on reducing the frequency of economic shrinking. This paper investigates why episodes of economic shrinking declined in 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1970 and 2016; a region that has received comparatively little attention in the emerging literature on economic shrinking. Using a theoretical framework based on open access orders and social capabilities, this study examines four potential drivers of Latin America’s reduced economic shrinking: autonomy, accountability, inclusion, and transformation. These are tested empirically using survival models applied to 430 shrinking episodes across the full sample and four regional subsamples. The results indicate that the decline in economic shrinking was driven primarily by improvements in autonomy (central bank independence) and accountability (educational expenditure). By contrast, the form of transformation experienced in the region, concentrated in natural resource–based sectors, was associated with increased shrinking risk, and inclusion did not emerge as a robust predictor in the full sample. These findings suggest that Latin America’s reduced economic contractions during the period contributed to a foundation for transitioning toward open access orders. However, without stronger progress in all four social capabilities, in particular transformation, this foundation remains fragile.}},
author = {{Andersson, Martin and Palacio, Andrés and von Borries, Alvaro and Rohne Till, Emelie}},
issn = {{2332-2039}},
keywords = {{Economic shrinking; resilience; open access orders; social capabilities; Latin America and the Caribbean}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{09}},
number = {{1}},
publisher = {{Cogent OA}},
series = {{Cogent Economics and Finance}},
title = {{The End of a Rocky Road? Exploring Four Decades of Reduced Economic Shrinking in Latin America, 1970–2016}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2026.2728272}},
doi = {{10.1080/23322039.2026.2728272}},
volume = {{14}},
year = {{2026}},
}