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Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays

van der Veere, Pieter J. ; van Harten, Argonde C. ; van Maurik, Ingrid S. ; Teunissen, Charlotte E. ; Barkhof, Frederik ; Vos, Stephanie J.B. ; Froelich, Lutz ; Kornhuber, Johannes ; Wiltfang, Jens and Maier, Wolfgang , et al. (2026) In Alzheimer's and Dementia 22(2).
Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform. METHODS: We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia.... (More)

INTRODUCTION: Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform. METHODS: We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia. Discrimination was good with Harrell's C of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66–0.73). Calibration was good in the total population and amyloid-positive subgroup, with substantial predicted progression risks for all amyloid-positive participants. DISCUSSION: We refitted the ABIDE model, predicting MCI to dementia progression, with automated CSF measurements. The model was well calibrated in amyloid-positive patients and may support clinical discussions regarding ATTs.

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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Alzheimer's disease, automated cerebrospinal fluid assays, cerebrospinal fluid, dementia, mild cognitive dementia, prediction
in
Alzheimer's and Dementia
volume
22
issue
2
article number
e71192
publisher
Wiley
external identifiers
  • pmid:41657128
  • scopus:105029605635
ISSN
1552-5260
DOI
10.1002/alz.71192
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Alzheimer's & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.
id
96a259ef-ae9a-439d-9402-a02634b938f7
date added to LUP
2026-02-26 11:41:09
date last changed
2026-02-27 10:26:04
@article{96a259ef-ae9a-439d-9402-a02634b938f7,
  abstract     = {{<p>INTRODUCTION: Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform. METHODS: We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia. Discrimination was good with Harrell's C of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66–0.73). Calibration was good in the total population and amyloid-positive subgroup, with substantial predicted progression risks for all amyloid-positive participants. DISCUSSION: We refitted the ABIDE model, predicting MCI to dementia progression, with automated CSF measurements. The model was well calibrated in amyloid-positive patients and may support clinical discussions regarding ATTs.</p>}},
  author       = {{van der Veere, Pieter J. and van Harten, Argonde C. and van Maurik, Ingrid S. and Teunissen, Charlotte E. and Barkhof, Frederik and Vos, Stephanie J.B. and Froelich, Lutz and Kornhuber, Johannes and Wiltfang, Jens and Maier, Wolfgang and Peters, Oliver and Rüther, Eckart and Frisoni, Giovanni B. and Spiru, Luiza and Freund-Levi, Yvonne and Wallin, Åsa K. and Hampel, Harald and Tsolaki, Magda and Kłoszewska, Iwona and Mecocci, Patrizia and Vellas, Bruno and Lovestone, Simon and Galluzzi, Samantha and Herukka, Sanna Kaisa and Santana, Isabel and Baldeiras, I. and de Mendonca, Alexandre and Silva, Dina and Chetelat, Gael and Poisnel, Géraldine and Visser, Pieter Jelle and Johnson, Sterling C. and Stormrud, Erik and Hansson, Oskar and Palmqvist, Sebastian and Piñol-Ripoll, Gerard and Berkhof, Johannes and van der Flier, Wiesje M.}},
  issn         = {{1552-5260}},
  keywords     = {{Alzheimer's disease; automated cerebrospinal fluid assays; cerebrospinal fluid; dementia; mild cognitive dementia; prediction}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley}},
  series       = {{Alzheimer's and Dementia}},
  title        = {{Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/alz.71192}},
  doi          = {{10.1002/alz.71192}},
  volume       = {{22}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}