Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850
(2021) In Journal of Global History 16(2). p.294-300- Abstract
As contribution to the debate about the interpretation of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution, we discuss two concerns about the currently available estimates of historical national accounts and the way in which these estimates should be interpreted. Firstly, we argue that estimates of the long-Term trends of economic growth should make use of all information contained in time series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP henceforth), and therefore use standard regression analysis to establish those trends. Secondly, we point to the problem that the time series of historical GDP are based on very different estimation procedures, which probably affect the outcome in terms of the level of GDP per capita in the period... (More)
As contribution to the debate about the interpretation of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution, we discuss two concerns about the currently available estimates of historical national accounts and the way in which these estimates should be interpreted. Firstly, we argue that estimates of the long-Term trends of economic growth should make use of all information contained in time series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP henceforth), and therefore use standard regression analysis to establish those trends. Secondly, we point to the problem that the time series of historical GDP are based on very different estimation procedures, which probably affect the outcome in terms of the level of GDP per capita in the period before 1850. Both concerns imply that we do not entirely agree with Jack Goldstone's views of pre-industrial growth. In particular, his conclusion that growth was cyclical before 1800 is inconsistent with the available GDP estimates, which point to sustained growth, albeit at a very low rate.
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- author
- Van Zanden, Jan Luiten and Bolt, Jutta LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Accounts, Economic Growth, Goldstone, Industrial Revolution, National Accounts, Pre-1850
- in
- Journal of Global History
- volume
- 16
- issue
- 2
- pages
- 7 pages
- publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85108629520
- ISSN
- 1740-0228
- DOI
- 10.1017/S174002282000039X
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 98139881-4b1d-4e21-af5c-f4d8e36a3a25
- date added to LUP
- 2021-08-17 16:12:28
- date last changed
- 2022-04-27 03:14:59
@article{98139881-4b1d-4e21-af5c-f4d8e36a3a25,
abstract = {{<p>As contribution to the debate about the interpretation of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution, we discuss two concerns about the currently available estimates of historical national accounts and the way in which these estimates should be interpreted. Firstly, we argue that estimates of the long-Term trends of economic growth should make use of all information contained in time series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP henceforth), and therefore use standard regression analysis to establish those trends. Secondly, we point to the problem that the time series of historical GDP are based on very different estimation procedures, which probably affect the outcome in terms of the level of GDP per capita in the period before 1850. Both concerns imply that we do not entirely agree with Jack Goldstone's views of pre-industrial growth. In particular, his conclusion that growth was cyclical before 1800 is inconsistent with the available GDP estimates, which point to sustained growth, albeit at a very low rate.</p>}},
author = {{Van Zanden, Jan Luiten and Bolt, Jutta}},
issn = {{1740-0228}},
keywords = {{Accounts; Economic Growth; Goldstone; Industrial Revolution; National Accounts; Pre-1850}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{2}},
pages = {{294--300}},
publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
series = {{Journal of Global History}},
title = {{Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S174002282000039X}},
doi = {{10.1017/S174002282000039X}},
volume = {{16}},
year = {{2021}},
}