Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Evaluating predictive performance of statistical models explaining wild bee abundance in a mass-flowering crop

Blasi, Maria LU ; Bartomeus, Ignasi ; Bommarco, Riccardo LU ; Gagic, Vesna ; Garratt, Michael ; Holzschuh, Andrea ; Kleijn, David ; Lindström, Sandra A.M. LU orcid ; Olsson, Peter LU orcid and Polce, Chiara , et al. (2021) In Ecography 44(4). p.525-536
Abstract

Wild bee populations are threatened by current agricultural practices in many parts of the world, which may put pollination services and crop yields at risk. Loss of pollination services can potentially be predicted by models that link bee abundances with landscape-scale land-use, but there is little knowledge on the degree to which these statistical models are transferable across time and space. This study assesses the transferability of models for wild bee abundance in a mass-flowering crop across space (from one region to another) and across time (from one year to another). The models used existing data on bumblebee and solitary bee abundance in winter oilseed rape fields, together with high-resolution land-use crop-cover and... (More)

Wild bee populations are threatened by current agricultural practices in many parts of the world, which may put pollination services and crop yields at risk. Loss of pollination services can potentially be predicted by models that link bee abundances with landscape-scale land-use, but there is little knowledge on the degree to which these statistical models are transferable across time and space. This study assesses the transferability of models for wild bee abundance in a mass-flowering crop across space (from one region to another) and across time (from one year to another). The models used existing data on bumblebee and solitary bee abundance in winter oilseed rape fields, together with high-resolution land-use crop-cover and semi-natural habitats data, from studies conducted in five different regions located in four countries (Sweden, Germany, Netherlands and the UK), in three different years (2011, 2012, 2013). We developed a hierarchical model combining all studies and evaluated the transferability using cross-validation. We found that both the landscape-scale cover of mass-flowering crops and permanent semi-natural habitats, including grasslands and forests, are important drivers of wild bee abundance in all regions. However, while the negative effect of increasing mass-flowering crops on the density of the pollinators is consistent between studies, the direction of the effect of semi-natural habitat is variable between studies. The transferability of these statistical models is limited, especially across regions, but also across time. Our study demonstrates the limits of using statistical models in conjunction with widely available land-use crop-cover classes for extrapolating pollinator density across years and regions, likely in part because input variables such as cover of semi-natural habitats poorly capture variability in pollinator resources between regions and years.

(Less)
Abstract (Swedish)
Wild bee populations are threatened by current agricultural practices in many parts of the world, which may put pollination services and crop yields at risk. Loss of pollination services can potentially be predicted by models that link bee abundances with landscape‐scale land‐use, but there is little knowledge on the degree to which these statistical models are transferable across time and space. This study assesses the transferability of models for wild bee abundance in a mass‐flowering crop across space (from one region to another) and across time (from one year to another). The models used existing data on bumblebee and solitary bee abundance in winter oilseed rape fields, together with high‐resolution land‐use crop‐cover and... (More)
Wild bee populations are threatened by current agricultural practices in many parts of the world, which may put pollination services and crop yields at risk. Loss of pollination services can potentially be predicted by models that link bee abundances with landscape‐scale land‐use, but there is little knowledge on the degree to which these statistical models are transferable across time and space. This study assesses the transferability of models for wild bee abundance in a mass‐flowering crop across space (from one region to another) and across time (from one year to another). The models used existing data on bumblebee and solitary bee abundance in winter oilseed rape fields, together with high‐resolution land‐use crop‐cover and semi‐natural habitats data, from studies conducted in five different regions located in four countries (Sweden, Germany, Netherlands and the UK), in three different years (2011, 2012, 2013). We developed a hierarchical model combining all studies and evaluated the transferability using cross‐validation. We found that both the landscape‐scale cover of mass‐flowering crops and permanent semi‐natural habitats, including grasslands and forests, are important drivers of wild bee abundance in all regions. However, while the negative effect of increasing mass‐flowering crops on the density of the pollinators is consistent between studies, the direction of the effect of semi‐natural habitat is variable between studies. The transferability of these statistical models is limited, especially across regions, but also across time. Our study demonstrates the limits of using statistical models in conjunction with widely available land‐use crop‐cover classes for extrapolating pollinator density across years and regions, likely in part because input variables such as cover of semi‐natural habitats poorly capture variability in pollinator resources between regions and years. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and , et al. (More)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and (Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Brassica napus, mass flowering crops, model predictions, permanent semi-natural habitats, transferability in ecology, wild pollinators, Brassica napus, mass flowering crops, model predictions, permanent semi-natural habitats, transferability in ecology, wild pollinators
in
Ecography
volume
44
issue
4
pages
525 - 536
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:85099592144
ISSN
0906-7590
DOI
10.1111/ecog.05308
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Funding Information: – This work was funded by the 2013–2014 BiodivERsA/FACCE‐JPI joint call for research proposals (project ECODEAL), with the national funders ANR, BMBF, FORMAS (contract 2014‐1783), FWF, MINECO, NWO and PT‐DL; Kungliga Fysiografiska Sällskapet i Lund, for Endowments for the Natural Sciences, Medicine and Technology – Biology; the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreements no. 244090 for the STEP: Status and trends of European pollinators project and no. 311781, for the LIBERATION Project; the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 819374) for the DrivenByPollinators project; the Insect Pollinators Initiative funded jointly by a grant from British Biological Science Research Council, Department for the Environment Farming and Rural Affairs, Natural Environment Research Council, the Scottish Government and the Wellcome Trust, under the Living with Environmental Change Partnership (BB/I000275/1); and the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA‐Net COFUND program, and with the funding organizations AEI, NWO, ECCyT and NSF. Funding Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Ecography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
id
99daa6c5-f89b-42c3-b1f7-15f2a8d7564c
date added to LUP
2021-03-15 17:15:09
date last changed
2024-05-17 05:58:52
@article{99daa6c5-f89b-42c3-b1f7-15f2a8d7564c,
  abstract     = {{<p>Wild bee populations are threatened by current agricultural practices in many parts of the world, which may put pollination services and crop yields at risk. Loss of pollination services can potentially be predicted by models that link bee abundances with landscape-scale land-use, but there is little knowledge on the degree to which these statistical models are transferable across time and space. This study assesses the transferability of models for wild bee abundance in a mass-flowering crop across space (from one region to another) and across time (from one year to another). The models used existing data on bumblebee and solitary bee abundance in winter oilseed rape fields, together with high-resolution land-use crop-cover and semi-natural habitats data, from studies conducted in five different regions located in four countries (Sweden, Germany, Netherlands and the UK), in three different years (2011, 2012, 2013). We developed a hierarchical model combining all studies and evaluated the transferability using cross-validation. We found that both the landscape-scale cover of mass-flowering crops and permanent semi-natural habitats, including grasslands and forests, are important drivers of wild bee abundance in all regions. However, while the negative effect of increasing mass-flowering crops on the density of the pollinators is consistent between studies, the direction of the effect of semi-natural habitat is variable between studies. The transferability of these statistical models is limited, especially across regions, but also across time. Our study demonstrates the limits of using statistical models in conjunction with widely available land-use crop-cover classes for extrapolating pollinator density across years and regions, likely in part because input variables such as cover of semi-natural habitats poorly capture variability in pollinator resources between regions and years.</p>}},
  author       = {{Blasi, Maria and Bartomeus, Ignasi and Bommarco, Riccardo and Gagic, Vesna and Garratt, Michael and Holzschuh, Andrea and Kleijn, David and Lindström, Sandra A.M. and Olsson, Peter and Polce, Chiara and Potts, Simon G. and Rundlöf, Maj and Scheper, Jeroen and Smith, Henrik G. and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and Clough, Yann}},
  issn         = {{0906-7590}},
  keywords     = {{Brassica napus; mass flowering crops; model predictions; permanent semi-natural habitats; transferability in ecology; wild pollinators; Brassica napus; mass flowering crops; model predictions; permanent semi-natural habitats; transferability in ecology; wild pollinators}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  number       = {{4}},
  pages        = {{525--536}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
  series       = {{Ecography}},
  title        = {{Evaluating predictive performance of statistical models explaining wild bee abundance in a mass-flowering crop}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05308}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/ecog.05308}},
  volume       = {{44}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}