Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Wild bees in agricultural landscapes: Modelling land use and climate effects across space and time

Blasi Romero, Maria LU (2021)
Abstract
Wild bees are declining in many parts of the world, which poses a risk for crop pollination and ecosystem health. Land use and climate change are two of the main drivers of the decline, and understanding the interactive effects of these two drivers and wild bees is very important to be able to develop proper responses and mitigate future negative effects. In this thesis I have investigated the effects of land use and climate on pollinators and pollination in agricultural landscapes, to increase our understanding of how the variability and interaction between these drivers. To do so, I have used both empirical and ecological modelling approaches, including estimation of effects and prediction on data collected in multiple European regions... (More)
Wild bees are declining in many parts of the world, which poses a risk for crop pollination and ecosystem health. Land use and climate change are two of the main drivers of the decline, and understanding the interactive effects of these two drivers and wild bees is very important to be able to develop proper responses and mitigate future negative effects. In this thesis I have investigated the effects of land use and climate on pollinators and pollination in agricultural landscapes, to increase our understanding of how the variability and interaction between these drivers. To do so, I have used both empirical and ecological modelling approaches, including estimation of effects and prediction on data collected in multiple European regions in multiple years, hypothesis testing on long-term citizen observations of bumblebees, and simulation studies based on a newly developed theoretical model. I demonstrate the limits of transferring statistical models to novel contexts, which is in part due to the quality and
type of data and variables used in these models (paper I). I have also improved methods for studying climate-land use interactions by developing a spatially explicit model of population dynamics that captures how bee populations
respond to land use and weather at a landscape scale during their active season (paper II, III). The model captures realistic patterns of bee population dynamics. We used the model to investigate the effect of drought-induced reductions in floral resources on population dynamics (paper II), and projected bee population responses to different RCP climate scenarios in multiple types of agricultural landscapes (paper III). Finally, we studied bumblebee queen phenology shifts in Sweden in the last 120 years, and show how some common species keep
track of global changes while rare and declining species might not (paper IV).
Altogether, the thesis contributes to a growing body of knowledge providing evidence of organisms tracking changes in land use and climate, expands the modelling opportunities for exploring interactions between land use
and climate change, and provides recommendations for how to improve transferability of results in pollination ecology. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Prof. Dr. Diekötter, Tim, Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel, Germany.
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Wild bees, Agricultural landscapes, climate change and agriculture, Phenology, Land-use, Model transferability, Ecological models, Pollination
pages
226 pages
publisher
Lund University
defense location
Blue Hall, Ecology buildning, Sölvegatan 37, Lund. Join via zoom: https://lu-se.zoom.us/meeting/register/u5wpcu2prj4vGtSjZ1oGzopJz_KfcNvUbWOE
defense date
2021-11-26 09:00:00
ISBN
978-91-8039-051-4
978-91-8039-052-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c2dd09ab-564b-447e-9545-df7e6006bf04
date added to LUP
2021-10-20 16:59:57
date last changed
2021-11-03 15:23:11
@phdthesis{c2dd09ab-564b-447e-9545-df7e6006bf04,
  abstract     = {{Wild bees are declining in many parts of the world, which poses a risk for crop pollination and ecosystem health.  Land use and climate change are two of the main drivers of the decline, and understanding the interactive effects of these two drivers and wild bees is very important to be able to develop proper responses and mitigate future negative effects. In this thesis I have investigated the effects of land use and climate on pollinators and pollination in agricultural landscapes, to increase our understanding of how the variability and interaction between these drivers. To do so, I have used both empirical and ecological modelling approaches, including estimation of effects and prediction on data collected in multiple European regions in multiple years, hypothesis testing on long-term citizen observations of bumblebees, and simulation studies based on a newly developed theoretical model. I demonstrate the limits of transferring statistical models to novel contexts, which is in part due to the quality and<br/>type of data and variables used in these models (paper I). I have also improved methods for studying climate-land use interactions by developing a spatially explicit model of population dynamics that captures how bee populations<br/>respond to land use and weather at a landscape scale during their active season (paper II, III). The model captures realistic patterns of bee population dynamics. We used the model to investigate the effect of drought-induced reductions in floral resources on population dynamics (paper II), and projected bee population responses to different RCP climate scenarios in multiple types of agricultural landscapes (paper III). Finally, we studied bumblebee queen phenology shifts in Sweden in the last 120 years, and show how some common species keep<br/>track of global changes while rare and declining species might not (paper IV).<br/>Altogether, the thesis contributes to a growing body of knowledge providing evidence of organisms tracking changes in land use and climate, expands the modelling opportunities for exploring interactions between land use<br/>and climate change, and provides recommendations for how to improve transferability of results in pollination ecology.}},
  author       = {{Blasi Romero, Maria}},
  isbn         = {{978-91-8039-051-4}},
  keywords     = {{Wild bees; Agricultural landscapes; climate change and agriculture; Phenology; Land-use; Model transferability; Ecological models; Pollination}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{10}},
  publisher    = {{Lund University}},
  school       = {{Lund University}},
  title        = {{Wild bees in agricultural landscapes: Modelling land use and climate effects across space and time}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}