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Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden

Malmqvist, Ebba LU ; Lisberg Jensen, Ebba; Westerberg, Karin; Stroh, Emilie LU ; Rittner, Ralf LU ; Gustafsson, Susanna; Spanne, Mårten; Nilsson, Henric and Oudin, Anna LU (2018) In Environment International 118. p.78-85
Abstract

Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease. The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission... (More)

Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease. The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission database with >40,000 sources. The dispersion model calculates Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) (later transformed into Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μg/m3 (PM2.5) with high spatial and temporal resolution (85 m and 1 h, respectively). The average individual reduction was 5.1 (ranging from 0.6 to 11.8) μg/m3 in NO2, which would prevent 55 (2% of all deaths) to 93 (4%) deaths annually, depending on dose-response function used. Furthermore, we estimate that the NO2 reduction would result in 21 (6%) fewer cases of incident asthma in children, 95 (10%) fewer children with bronchitis every year, 30 (1%) fewer hospital admissions for respiratory disease, 87(4%) fewer dementia cases, and 11(11%) fewer cases of preeclampsia every year. The average reduction in PM2.5 of 0.6 (ranging from 0.1 till 1.7) μg/m3 would mean that 2729 (0.3%) work days would not be lost due to sick-days and that there would be 16,472 fewer restricted activity days (0.3%) that year had all on-road transportations been without tail-pipe emissions. Even though the estimates are sensitive to the dose-response functions used and to exposure misclassification errors, even the most conservative estimate of the number of prevented deaths is 7 times larger than the annual traffic fatalities in Malmö, indicating a substantial possibility to reduce the health burden attributed to tail-pipe emissions in the study area.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Air pollution, Clean air policy, Health effects, Health impact assessment, HIA
in
Environment International
volume
118
pages
8 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85047620410
ISSN
0160-4120
DOI
10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.035
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
9d11cb07-6723-414b-a835-fe8301a11c08
date added to LUP
2018-06-11 10:50:54
date last changed
2018-06-12 03:00:02
@article{9d11cb07-6723-414b-a835-fe8301a11c08,
  abstract     = {<p>Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease. The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission database with &gt;40,000 sources. The dispersion model calculates Nitrogen Oxides (NO<sub>x</sub>) (later transformed into Nitrogen Dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>)) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter &lt; 2.5 μg/m<sup>3</sup> (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) with high spatial and temporal resolution (85 m and 1 h, respectively). The average individual reduction was 5.1 (ranging from 0.6 to 11.8) μg/m<sup>3</sup> in NO<sub>2,</sub> which would prevent 55 (2% of all deaths) to 93 (4%) deaths annually, depending on dose-response function used. Furthermore, we estimate that the NO<sub>2</sub> reduction would result in 21 (6%) fewer cases of incident asthma in children, 95 (10%) fewer children with bronchitis every year, 30 (1%) fewer hospital admissions for respiratory disease, 87(4%) fewer dementia cases, and 11(11%) fewer cases of preeclampsia every year. The average reduction in PM<sub>2.5</sub> of 0.6 (ranging from 0.1 till 1.7) μg/m<sup>3</sup> would mean that 2729 (0.3%) work days would not be lost due to sick-days and that there would be 16,472 fewer restricted activity days (0.3%) that year had all on-road transportations been without tail-pipe emissions. Even though the estimates are sensitive to the dose-response functions used and to exposure misclassification errors, even the most conservative estimate of the number of prevented deaths is 7 times larger than the annual traffic fatalities in Malmö, indicating a substantial possibility to reduce the health burden attributed to tail-pipe emissions in the study area.</p>},
  author       = {Malmqvist, Ebba and Lisberg Jensen, Ebba and Westerberg, Karin and Stroh, Emilie and Rittner, Ralf and Gustafsson, Susanna and Spanne, Mårten and Nilsson, Henric and Oudin, Anna},
  issn         = {0160-4120},
  keyword      = {Air pollution,Clean air policy,Health effects,Health impact assessment,HIA},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {09},
  pages        = {78--85},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Environment International},
  title        = {Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.035},
  volume       = {118},
  year         = {2018},
}