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Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy

Jönsson, Martin LU and Assarsson, Elias (2013) In Synthese 190(15). p.3075-3085
Abstract
This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's... (More)
This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Conjunction fallacy, Inverse conjunction fallacy, Degree of, confirmation, Degree of Justification, Bayesian epistemology
in
Synthese
volume
190
issue
15
pages
3075 - 3085
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000327144200005
  • scopus:84888059721
ISSN
0039-7857
DOI
10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a0d1ed80-7ede-495f-b442-f883148eb9b9 (old id 4275296)
date added to LUP
2013-11-19 10:05:52
date last changed
2019-03-19 02:09:14
@article{a0d1ed80-7ede-495f-b442-f883148eb9b9,
  abstract     = {This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern.},
  author       = {Jönsson, Martin and Assarsson, Elias},
  issn         = {0039-7857},
  keyword      = {Conjunction fallacy,Inverse conjunction fallacy,Degree of,confirmation,Degree of Justification,Bayesian epistemology},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {15},
  pages        = {3075--3085},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Synthese},
  title        = {Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8},
  volume       = {190},
  year         = {2013},
}