Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy
(2013) In Synthese 190(15). p.30753085 Abstract
 This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:2948, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's... (More)
 This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:2948, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4275296
 author
 Jönsson, Martin ^{LU} and Assarsson, Elias
 organization
 publishing date
 2013
 type
 Contribution to journal
 publication status
 published
 subject
 keywords
 Conjunction fallacy, Inverse conjunction fallacy, Degree of, confirmation, Degree of Justification, Bayesian epistemology
 in
 Synthese
 volume
 190
 issue
 15
 pages
 3075  3085
 publisher
 Springer
 external identifiers

 wos:000327144200005
 scopus:84888059721
 ISSN
 00397857
 DOI
 10.1007/s1122901201258
 language
 English
 LU publication?
 yes
 id
 a0d1ed807ede495fb442f883148eb9b9 (old id 4275296)
 date added to LUP
 20131119 10:05:52
 date last changed
 20190319 02:09:14
@article{a0d1ed807ede495fb442f883148eb9b9, abstract = {This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:2948, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern.}, author = {Jönsson, Martin and Assarsson, Elias}, issn = {00397857}, keyword = {Conjunction fallacy,Inverse conjunction fallacy,Degree of,confirmation,Degree of Justification,Bayesian epistemology}, language = {eng}, number = {15}, pages = {30753085}, publisher = {Springer}, series = {Synthese}, title = {Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s1122901201258}, volume = {190}, year = {2013}, }