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Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Its Economic Implications in Northern Permafrost Regions in the 21st Century

Mu, Cuicui ; Mo, Xiaoxiao ; Qiao, Yuan ; Chen, Yating ; Wei, Yuguo ; Mu, Mei ; Song, Jinyue ; Li, Zhilong ; Zhang, Wenxin LU orcid and Peng, Xiaoqing , et al. (2023) In Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37(11).
Abstract

Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO2 emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO2 balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO2 emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO2 uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air... (More)

Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO2 emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO2 balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO2 emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO2 uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5-8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057–2100. The net economic benefits of CO2 budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high-emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
carbon loss, CO emissions, economic benefits, permafrost degradation
in
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
volume
37
issue
11
article number
e2023GB007750
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85176395329
ISSN
0886-6236
DOI
10.1029/2023GB007750
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Funding Information: This work is funding by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFA0607003), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42371132, 42201136), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100313), Gansu Science and Technology Program (23JRRA1171), Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky‐2023‐eyt01, lzujbky‐2021‐ct13), Swedish Research Council VR 2020‐05338, and the West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Publisher Copyright: © 2023. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
id
abccabfd-4ec0-4ac9-8d08-efc4dd3980e0
date added to LUP
2023-11-25 23:37:27
date last changed
2023-12-15 09:14:42
@article{abccabfd-4ec0-4ac9-8d08-efc4dd3980e0,
  abstract     = {{<p>Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO<sub>2</sub> emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO<sub>2</sub> emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO<sub>2</sub> uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5-8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057–2100. The net economic benefits of CO<sub>2</sub> budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high-emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions.</p>}},
  author       = {{Mu, Cuicui and Mo, Xiaoxiao and Qiao, Yuan and Chen, Yating and Wei, Yuguo and Mu, Mei and Song, Jinyue and Li, Zhilong and Zhang, Wenxin and Peng, Xiaoqing and Zhang, Guofei and Zhuang, Qianlai and Aurela, Mika}},
  issn         = {{0886-6236}},
  keywords     = {{carbon loss; CO emissions; economic benefits; permafrost degradation}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{11}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Global Biogeochemical Cycles}},
  title        = {{Ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> Exchange and Its Economic Implications in Northern Permafrost Regions in the 21st Century}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007750}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2023GB007750}},
  volume       = {{37}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}