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The US-Japan Alliance and the Role of the US Marines on Okinawa in Extended Deterrence

O'shea, Paul LU (2024) In Social Science Japan Journal 27(1). p.57-75
Abstract
The relocation of the controversial Marine base at Futenma on Okinawa to Henoko in the north of the same island has been framed by Japanese politicians, officials, and analysts as crucial to deterrence. Critics respond that deterrence is merely a pretext, and the relocation is a politically convenient solution that perpetuates discrimination against Okinawa by the central government in Tokyo. This article draws on deterrence theory to evaluate the deterrence claims made by relocation proponents. It finds little evidence to support them: the Marines’ capabilities pale against the massive US forward deployment, including the Seventh Fleet and the Fifth Air Force. As for the local balance of forces, the Marines are unlikely to participate... (More)
The relocation of the controversial Marine base at Futenma on Okinawa to Henoko in the north of the same island has been framed by Japanese politicians, officials, and analysts as crucial to deterrence. Critics respond that deterrence is merely a pretext, and the relocation is a politically convenient solution that perpetuates discrimination against Okinawa by the central government in Tokyo. This article draws on deterrence theory to evaluate the deterrence claims made by relocation proponents. It finds little evidence to support them: the Marines’ capabilities pale against the massive US forward deployment, including the Seventh Fleet and the Fifth Air Force. As for the local balance of forces, the Marines are unlikely to participate immediately in a local conflict, and their geographical location leaves them vulnerable; current US strategy is to down-scale and disperse Marine units. If one were focusing on defence rather than political convenience, the Marines would be relocated off Okinawa. In terms of credibility, the article finds that other US bases in Japan play a much more important ‘tripwire’ role, and ultimately, given inter alia the security treaty, joint exercises, and deep interoperability, US extended deterrence to Japan is as credible as possible under the circumstances. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
deterrence, extended deterrence,, US–Japan alliance, Okinawa, military bases, Futenma, Henoko, East China Sea
in
Social Science Japan Journal
volume
27
issue
1
pages
19 pages
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85189175064
ISSN
1468-2680
DOI
10.1093/ssjj/jyad024
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ade16ba6-5f40-4fe2-a896-dd1a8c2678de
date added to LUP
2023-10-31 11:11:45
date last changed
2024-04-12 12:49:58
@article{ade16ba6-5f40-4fe2-a896-dd1a8c2678de,
  abstract     = {{The relocation of the controversial Marine base at Futenma on Okinawa to Henoko in the north of the same island has been framed by Japanese politicians, officials, and analysts as crucial to deterrence. Critics respond that deterrence is merely a pretext, and the relocation is a politically convenient solution that perpetuates discrimination against Okinawa by the central government in Tokyo. This article draws on deterrence theory to evaluate the deterrence claims made by relocation proponents. It finds little evidence to support them: the Marines’ capabilities pale against the massive US forward deployment, including the Seventh Fleet and the Fifth Air Force. As for the local balance of forces, the Marines are unlikely to participate immediately in a local conflict, and their geographical location leaves them vulnerable; current US strategy is to down-scale and disperse Marine units. If one were focusing on defence rather than political convenience, the Marines would be relocated off Okinawa. In terms of credibility, the article finds that other US bases in Japan play a much more important ‘tripwire’ role, and ultimately, given inter alia the security treaty, joint exercises, and deep interoperability, US extended deterrence to Japan is as credible as possible under the circumstances.}},
  author       = {{O'shea, Paul}},
  issn         = {{1468-2680}},
  keywords     = {{deterrence; extended deterrence,; US–Japan alliance; Okinawa; military bases; Futenma; Henoko; East China Sea}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{57--75}},
  publisher    = {{Oxford University Press}},
  series       = {{Social Science Japan Journal}},
  title        = {{The US-Japan Alliance and the Role of the US Marines on Okinawa in Extended Deterrence}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ssjj/jyad024}},
  doi          = {{10.1093/ssjj/jyad024}},
  volume       = {{27}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}