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The Impact of the Good Behavior Game on Risk for Drug Use Disorder in an Agent-Based Model of Southern Sweden

Lönn, Sara L. LU ; Krauland, Maryg ; Fagan, Abigail A. ; Sundquist, Jan LU ; Sundquist, Kristina LU ; Roberts, Mark S. and Kendler, Kenneth S. (2023) In Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs 84(6). p.863-873
Abstract

Objective: Drug use disorder (DUD) is aworldwide problem, and strategies to reduce its incidence are central to decreasing its burden. This investigation seeks to provide aproof of concept for the ability of agent-based modeling to predict the impact of the introduction of an effective school-based intervention, the Good Behavior Game (GBG), on reducing DUD in Scania, Sweden, primarilythrough increasing school achievement. Method: We modified anexisting agent-based simulation model of opioid use disorder to represent DUD inScania County, southernSweden. The model represents every individual in the population and is calibrated with the linked individual data from multiple sources including demographics, education, medical care, and... (More)

Objective: Drug use disorder (DUD) is aworldwide problem, and strategies to reduce its incidence are central to decreasing its burden. This investigation seeks to provide aproof of concept for the ability of agent-based modeling to predict the impact of the introduction of an effective school-based intervention, the Good Behavior Game (GBG), on reducing DUD in Scania, Sweden, primarilythrough increasing school achievement. Method: We modified anexisting agent-based simulation model of opioid use disorder to represent DUD inScania County, southernSweden. The model represents every individual in the population and is calibrated with the linked individual data from multiple sources including demographics, education, medical care, and criminal history. Risks for developing DUD were estimated from the population in Scania. Scenarios estimated the impact of introducing the GBG in schools located in disadvantaged areas. Results: The model accurately reflected the growth of DUD in Scania over amultiyear period and reproduced the levels of affected individuals in various socioeconomic strata over time. The GBG was estimated to improve school achievement and lower DUD registrations over time in males residing in disadvantaged areas by 10%, reflecting adecrease of 540 cases of DUD. Effects were considerably smaller in females. Conclusions: This work provides sup-portfor the impact of improvingschool achievement on long-termrisks of developing DUD. Italso demonstrated the value of using simulation modeling calibrated with data from areal population to estimate the impact of an intervention applied at apopulation level.

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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs
volume
84
issue
6
pages
11 pages
publisher
Alcohol Research Documentation, Inc.
external identifiers
  • pmid:37650838
  • scopus:85176496764
ISSN
1937-1888
DOI
10.15288/jsad.22-00413
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Funding Information: This project was supported by National Institute on Drug Abuse Grant R01DA030005, grants from the Swedish Research Council, and Avtal om Läkarutbildningoch Forskning(ALF) funding from RegionSkåne. Dr. Roberts and Dr, Kraulandreceivedfunding from CDC contract 75D30121C12574. *Correspondence may be sent to Kenneth S. Kendler at the Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics of VCU, Box 980126, Richmond, VA 23298-0126, or via email at: Kenneth.Kendler@vcuhealth. org.†Joint senior authors. Funding Information: This project was supported by National Institute on Drug Abuse Grant R01DA030005, grants from the Swedish Research Council, and Avtal om Läkarutbildning och Forskning (ALF) funding from Region Skåne. Dr. Roberts and Dr, Krauland received funding from CDCcontract 75D30121C12574. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, Alcohol Research Documentation Inc.. All rights reserved.
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b106b190-fdce-4ee1-b49d-83a428d8df1b
date added to LUP
2024-01-03 13:10:22
date last changed
2024-12-13 11:59:17
@article{b106b190-fdce-4ee1-b49d-83a428d8df1b,
  abstract     = {{<p>Objective: Drug use disorder (DUD) is aworldwide problem, and strategies to reduce its incidence are central to decreasing its burden. This investigation seeks to provide aproof of concept for the ability of agent-based modeling to predict the impact of the introduction of an effective school-based intervention, the Good Behavior Game (GBG), on reducing DUD in Scania, Sweden, primarilythrough increasing school achievement. Method: We modified anexisting agent-based simulation model of opioid use disorder to represent DUD inScania County, southernSweden. The model represents every individual in the population and is calibrated with the linked individual data from multiple sources including demographics, education, medical care, and criminal history. Risks for developing DUD were estimated from the population in Scania. Scenarios estimated the impact of introducing the GBG in schools located in disadvantaged areas. Results: The model accurately reflected the growth of DUD in Scania over amultiyear period and reproduced the levels of affected individuals in various socioeconomic strata over time. The GBG was estimated to improve school achievement and lower DUD registrations over time in males residing in disadvantaged areas by 10%, reflecting adecrease of 540 cases of DUD. Effects were considerably smaller in females. Conclusions: This work provides sup-portfor the impact of improvingschool achievement on long-termrisks of developing DUD. Italso demonstrated the value of using simulation modeling calibrated with data from areal population to estimate the impact of an intervention applied at apopulation level.</p>}},
  author       = {{Lönn, Sara L. and Krauland, Maryg and Fagan, Abigail A. and Sundquist, Jan and Sundquist, Kristina and Roberts, Mark S. and Kendler, Kenneth S.}},
  issn         = {{1937-1888}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{6}},
  pages        = {{863--873}},
  publisher    = {{Alcohol Research Documentation, Inc.}},
  series       = {{Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs}},
  title        = {{The Impact of the Good Behavior Game on Risk for Drug Use Disorder in an Agent-Based Model of Southern Sweden}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.15288/jsad.22-00413}},
  doi          = {{10.15288/jsad.22-00413}},
  volume       = {{84}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}