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A Cold Stop: Temperature, Unemployment and Joblessness Dynamics

Nieto Castro, Adrian LU ; Graff Zivin, Joshua S. ; Neidell, Matthew and Lepinteur, Anthony (2025) In NBER Working Paper Series
Abstract
We provide new evidence that short-run temperature shocks affect unemployment dynamics. Linking daily weather data with three decades of Current Population Survey microdata, we show that cold, but not hot, temperatures significantly increase unemployment risk. This effect is concentrated in climate-exposed industries and driven by both increased job separations and longer unemployment durations. Separations appear to be driven by a rise in layoffs rather than quits, while the increase in unemployment duration is largely explained by a decline in employer vacancy postings. Taken together, temperature-induced joblessness dynamics are primarily demand-driven, rather than a result of changes in worker behavior.
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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Working paper/Preprint
publication status
published
subject
in
NBER Working Paper Series
issue
34487
DOI
10.3386/w34487
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
b6f3cb89-6d6f-46c9-ba9b-f78e89091c96
date added to LUP
2026-03-06 10:53:40
date last changed
2026-03-06 15:26:50
@misc{b6f3cb89-6d6f-46c9-ba9b-f78e89091c96,
  abstract     = {{We provide new evidence that short-run temperature shocks affect unemployment dynamics. Linking daily weather data with three decades of Current Population Survey microdata, we show that cold, but not hot, temperatures significantly increase unemployment risk. This effect is concentrated in climate-exposed industries and driven by both increased job separations and longer unemployment durations. Separations appear to be driven by a rise in layoffs rather than quits, while the increase in unemployment duration is largely explained by a decline in employer vacancy postings. Taken together, temperature-induced joblessness dynamics are primarily demand-driven, rather than a result of changes in worker behavior.}},
  author       = {{Nieto Castro, Adrian and Graff  Zivin, Joshua S. and Neidell, Matthew and Lepinteur, Anthony}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{34487}},
  series       = {{NBER Working Paper Series}},
  title        = {{A Cold Stop: Temperature, Unemployment and Joblessness Dynamics}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w34487}},
  doi          = {{10.3386/w34487}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}