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Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M and Campedelli, Tommaso, et al. (2016) In Science 352(6281). p.84-87
Abstract

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents,... (More)

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

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@article{baf362b7-e29a-4a2d-a038-59fc7cbdeca7,
  abstract     = {<p>Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.</p>},
  author       = {Stephens, Philip A. and Mason, Lucy R. and Green, Rhys E. and Gregory, Richard D. and Sauer, John R. and Alison, Jamie and Aunins, Ainars and Brotons, Lluís and Butchart, Stuart H M and Campedelli, Tommaso and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz and Chylarecki, Przemysław and Crowe, Olivia and Elts, Jaanus and Escandell, Virginia and Foppen, Ruud P B and Heldbjerg, Henning and Herrando, Sergi and Husby, Magne and Jiguet, Frédéric and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Lindström, Åke and Noble, David G. and Paquet, Jean Yves and Reif, Jiri and Sattler, Thomas and Szép, Tibor and Teufelbauer, Norbert and Trautmann, Sven and Van Strien, Arco J. and Van Turnhout, Chris A M and Vorisek, Petr and Willis, Stephen G.},
  issn         = {0036-8075},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {04},
  number       = {6281},
  pages        = {84--87},
  publisher    = {The American Association for the Advancement of Science},
  series       = {Science},
  title        = {Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858},
  volume       = {352},
  year         = {2016},
}