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Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy

Dong, Yanli ; Yu, Zhen ; Pugh, Thomas LU ; Agathokleous, Evgenios ; Zhang, Fangmin ; Sitch, Stephen LU ; You, Weibin ; Han, Wangya ; Olin, Stefan LU orcid and Liu, Shirong , et al. (2026) In Nature Communications 17.
Abstract

China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of 'forest edge', where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring... (More)

China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of 'forest edge', where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring edge effects can significantly overestimate carbon sink potential and highlight spatially optimized forestation as a pathway to maximize climate mitigation and ecological benefits.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
China, Carbon Sequestration, Forests, Biomass, Trees/metabolism, Forestry/methods, Carbon/metabolism, Climate Change
in
Nature Communications
volume
17
article number
1576
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:41526403
  • scopus:105029831544
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-026-68288-5
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
© 2026. The Author(s).
id
be3bbcf5-7701-4fe7-8154-955f6a5c93c6
date added to LUP
2026-02-23 09:06:00
date last changed
2026-02-24 04:00:52
@article{be3bbcf5-7701-4fe7-8154-955f6a5c93c6,
  abstract     = {{<p>China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of 'forest edge', where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring edge effects can significantly overestimate carbon sink potential and highlight spatially optimized forestation as a pathway to maximize climate mitigation and ecological benefits.</p>}},
  author       = {{Dong, Yanli and Yu, Zhen and Pugh, Thomas and Agathokleous, Evgenios and Zhang, Fangmin and Sitch, Stephen and You, Weibin and Han, Wangya and Olin, Stefan and Liu, Shirong and Zhou, Guoyi and Cabral, Pedro and Sun, Pengsen}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  keywords     = {{China; Carbon Sequestration; Forests; Biomass; Trees/metabolism; Forestry/methods; Carbon/metabolism; Climate Change}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68288-5}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-026-68288-5}},
  volume       = {{17}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}