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Anchoring and subjective belief distributions

Holm, Håkan Jerker LU ; van Veldhuizen, Roel LU orcid ; Wengström, Erik LU and Samahita, Margaret (2024) In UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series p.1-12
Abstract
We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences the full distribution of subjective beliefs. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on higher moments of the distribution remains unexplored. Through a pre-registered online experiment (N=732), we find that anchoring impacts the mean, variance, and skewness of belief distributions. Notably, the anchoring effect diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than means. Furthermore, presenting anchors prior to eliciting beliefs reduces the variance in belief distributions compared to when elicited without anchors. Our study shows that cognitive biases may have important impacts... (More)
We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences the full distribution of subjective beliefs. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on higher moments of the distribution remains unexplored. Through a pre-registered online experiment (N=732), we find that anchoring impacts the mean, variance, and skewness of belief distributions. Notably, the anchoring effect diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than means. Furthermore, presenting anchors prior to eliciting beliefs reduces the variance in belief distributions compared to when elicited without anchors. Our study shows that cognitive biases may have important impacts beyond point estimates.
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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Working paper/Preprint
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Anchoring, Belief Elicitation, Heuristics and Biases, D73, C91, K42
in
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series
issue
WP24/07
pages
1 - 12
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c0349168-6f20-496a-82bd-20a953e1f5d0
alternative location
https://www.ucd.ie/economics/t4media/WP2024_07.pdf
date added to LUP
2025-03-24 09:09:59
date last changed
2025-04-04 14:23:15
@misc{c0349168-6f20-496a-82bd-20a953e1f5d0,
  abstract     = {{We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences the full distribution of subjective beliefs. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on higher moments of the distribution remains unexplored. Through a pre-registered online experiment (N=732), we find that anchoring impacts the mean, variance, and skewness of belief distributions. Notably, the anchoring effect diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than means. Furthermore, presenting anchors prior to eliciting beliefs reduces the variance in belief distributions compared to when elicited without anchors. Our study shows that cognitive biases may have important impacts beyond point estimates.<br/>}},
  author       = {{Holm, Håkan Jerker and van Veldhuizen, Roel and Wengström, Erik and Samahita, Margaret}},
  keywords     = {{Anchoring; Belief Elicitation; Heuristics and Biases; D73; C91; K42}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{04}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{WP24/07}},
  pages        = {{1--12}},
  series       = {{UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series}},
  title        = {{Anchoring and subjective belief distributions}},
  url          = {{https://www.ucd.ie/economics/t4media/WP2024_07.pdf}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}