Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020–2022 : a study using nationwide population data
Nilsson, Anton LU ; Emilsson, Louise ; Kepp, Kasper P. ; Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo ; Forthun, Ingeborg ; Madsen, Christian ; Björk, Jonas LU
and Lallukka, Tea
(2024)
In European Journal of Epidemiology
39(9).
p.1037-1050
- Abstract
While there is substantial evidence on excess mortality in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, no study has conducted a cause-specific analysis of excess mortality for the whole period 2020–2022 across multiple countries. We examined cause-specific excess mortality during 2020–2022 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—four countries with similar demographics and welfare provisions, which implemented different pandemic response policies. To this end, we utilized nationwide register-based information on annual cause-specific deaths stratified by age and sex, and applied linear regression models to predict mortality in 2020–2022 based on the reference period 2010–2019. Excess deaths were obtained by contrasting actual and... (More)
While there is substantial evidence on excess mortality in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, no study has conducted a cause-specific analysis of excess mortality for the whole period 2020–2022 across multiple countries. We examined cause-specific excess mortality during 2020–2022 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—four countries with similar demographics and welfare provisions, which implemented different pandemic response policies. To this end, we utilized nationwide register-based information on annual cause-specific deaths stratified by age and sex, and applied linear regression models to predict mortality in 2020–2022 based on the reference period 2010–2019. Excess deaths were obtained by contrasting actual and expected deaths. Additional analyses employed standardization to a common population, as well as population adjustments to account for previous deaths. Our results showed that, besides deaths due to COVID-19 (a total of 32,491 during 2020–2022), all countries experienced excess deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (in total 11,610 excess deaths), and under-mortality due to respiratory diseases other than COVID-19 (in total 9878) and dementia (in total 8721). The excess mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was particularly pronounced in Finland and Norway in 2022, and the under-mortality due to dementia was particularly pronounced in Sweden in 2021–2022. In conclusion, while COVID-19 deaths emerge as the most apparent consequence of the pandemic, our findings suggest that mortality has also been influenced by substitutions between different causes of death and over time, as well as indirect consequences of COVID-19 infection and pandemic responses—albeit to different extents in the different countries.
(Less)
- author
- Nilsson, Anton
LU
; Emilsson, Louise
; Kepp, Kasper P.
; Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo
; Forthun, Ingeborg
; Madsen, Christian
; Björk, Jonas
LU
and Lallukka, Tea
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024-09
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Cause-specific excess mortality, COVID-19, Nordic countries, Pandemic
- in
- European Journal of Epidemiology
- volume
- 39
- issue
- 9
- pages
- 14 pages
- publisher
- Springer
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:39285102
- scopus:85204232782
- ISSN
- 0393-2990
- DOI
- 10.1007/s10654-024-01154-0
- project
- Improved preparedness for future pandemics and other health crises through large-scale disease surveillance
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- c3ffb5a2-e1d2-4a40-a953-555381a44ce3
- date added to LUP
- 2024-11-27 11:06:41
- date last changed
- 2025-07-10 05:48:41
@article{c3ffb5a2-e1d2-4a40-a953-555381a44ce3,
abstract = {{<p>While there is substantial evidence on excess mortality in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, no study has conducted a cause-specific analysis of excess mortality for the whole period 2020–2022 across multiple countries. We examined cause-specific excess mortality during 2020–2022 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—four countries with similar demographics and welfare provisions, which implemented different pandemic response policies. To this end, we utilized nationwide register-based information on annual cause-specific deaths stratified by age and sex, and applied linear regression models to predict mortality in 2020–2022 based on the reference period 2010–2019. Excess deaths were obtained by contrasting actual and expected deaths. Additional analyses employed standardization to a common population, as well as population adjustments to account for previous deaths. Our results showed that, besides deaths due to COVID-19 (a total of 32,491 during 2020–2022), all countries experienced excess deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (in total 11,610 excess deaths), and under-mortality due to respiratory diseases other than COVID-19 (in total 9878) and dementia (in total 8721). The excess mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was particularly pronounced in Finland and Norway in 2022, and the under-mortality due to dementia was particularly pronounced in Sweden in 2021–2022. In conclusion, while COVID-19 deaths emerge as the most apparent consequence of the pandemic, our findings suggest that mortality has also been influenced by substitutions between different causes of death and over time, as well as indirect consequences of COVID-19 infection and pandemic responses—albeit to different extents in the different countries.</p>}},
author = {{Nilsson, Anton and Emilsson, Louise and Kepp, Kasper P. and Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo and Forthun, Ingeborg and Madsen, Christian and Björk, Jonas and Lallukka, Tea}},
issn = {{0393-2990}},
keywords = {{Cause-specific excess mortality; COVID-19; Nordic countries; Pandemic}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{9}},
pages = {{1037--1050}},
publisher = {{Springer}},
series = {{European Journal of Epidemiology}},
title = {{Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020–2022 : a study using nationwide population data}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-024-01154-0}},
doi = {{10.1007/s10654-024-01154-0}},
volume = {{39}},
year = {{2024}},
}