Sweden’s excess mortality in 2020–2022 and reporting in the media
(2024) In Scandinavian Journal of Public Health- Abstract
Aim: The aim was to scrutinize the report in March 2023 that Sweden’s excess mortality was lowest in 2020–2022 compared with other European Union and Nordic countries, a report that received great national and international attention. Study design: Comparison of excess mortality in Sweden and Norway. Methods: Excess mortality for 2020–2022 was calculated for Sweden and Norway, the country with per-capita excess mortality closest to Sweden’s, compared with the average mortality for 2017–2019 in the respective country, following the definitions by Statistics Sweden reported in a daily newspaper. Results: Excess mortality is a measure with low misclassification compared with other pandemic outcome measures. Following the definitions, total... (More)
Aim: The aim was to scrutinize the report in March 2023 that Sweden’s excess mortality was lowest in 2020–2022 compared with other European Union and Nordic countries, a report that received great national and international attention. Study design: Comparison of excess mortality in Sweden and Norway. Methods: Excess mortality for 2020–2022 was calculated for Sweden and Norway, the country with per-capita excess mortality closest to Sweden’s, compared with the average mortality for 2017–2019 in the respective country, following the definitions by Statistics Sweden reported in a daily newspaper. Results: Excess mortality is a measure with low misclassification compared with other pandemic outcome measures. Following the definitions, total excess mortality for the years 2020–2022 was 11,897 individuals in Sweden and 6089 in Norway. However, the distributions of excess mortality across the 3 years strongly differed. In Sweden, 60% of excess mortality was observed in 2020, 8% in 2021 and 32% in 2022. In sharp contrast, 0% of excess mortality was observed in Norway in 2020, 20% in 2021 and 80% in 2022. If the relative distribution of excess mortality in Sweden had been the same as in Norway in 2020–2022, approximately 7000 individuals who died in 2020 would instead have died as excess mortality in 2022, saving approximately 14,000 person-years in Sweden. Conclusions: The report disregards residual confounding due to the broad definition of the period 2020–2022. Mass media should avoid one-sided reporting.
(Less)
- author
- Lindström, Martin LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- epub
- subject
- keywords
- coronavirus, excess mortality, Folkhälsomyndigheten, mass media, pandemic, Public Health Agency, residual confounding, Sweden, Swedish strategy
- in
- Scandinavian Journal of Public Health
- publisher
- SAGE Publications
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:38499977
- scopus:85188321592
- ISSN
- 1403-4948
- DOI
- 10.1177/14034948241239353
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- c4607f50-b319-46da-bc66-65f44ead38ac
- date added to LUP
- 2024-04-19 09:26:43
- date last changed
- 2024-04-20 03:00:08
@article{c4607f50-b319-46da-bc66-65f44ead38ac,
abstract = {{<p>Aim: The aim was to scrutinize the report in March 2023 that Sweden’s excess mortality was lowest in 2020–2022 compared with other European Union and Nordic countries, a report that received great national and international attention. Study design: Comparison of excess mortality in Sweden and Norway. Methods: Excess mortality for 2020–2022 was calculated for Sweden and Norway, the country with per-capita excess mortality closest to Sweden’s, compared with the average mortality for 2017–2019 in the respective country, following the definitions by Statistics Sweden reported in a daily newspaper. Results: Excess mortality is a measure with low misclassification compared with other pandemic outcome measures. Following the definitions, total excess mortality for the years 2020–2022 was 11,897 individuals in Sweden and 6089 in Norway. However, the distributions of excess mortality across the 3 years strongly differed. In Sweden, 60% of excess mortality was observed in 2020, 8% in 2021 and 32% in 2022. In sharp contrast, 0% of excess mortality was observed in Norway in 2020, 20% in 2021 and 80% in 2022. If the relative distribution of excess mortality in Sweden had been the same as in Norway in 2020–2022, approximately 7000 individuals who died in 2020 would instead have died as excess mortality in 2022, saving approximately 14,000 person-years in Sweden. Conclusions: The report disregards residual confounding due to the broad definition of the period 2020–2022. Mass media should avoid one-sided reporting.</p>}},
author = {{Lindström, Martin}},
issn = {{1403-4948}},
keywords = {{coronavirus; excess mortality; Folkhälsomyndigheten; mass media; pandemic; Public Health Agency; residual confounding; Sweden; Swedish strategy}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{SAGE Publications}},
series = {{Scandinavian Journal of Public Health}},
title = {{Sweden’s excess mortality in 2020–2022 and reporting in the media}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/14034948241239353}},
doi = {{10.1177/14034948241239353}},
year = {{2024}},
}