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Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)

Akperov, Mirseid ; Rinke, Annette ; Mokhov, Igor I. ; Semenov, Vladimir A. ; Parfenova, Mariya ; Matthes, Heidrun ; Adakudlu, Muralidhar ; Boberg, Fredrik ; Christensen, Jens H. and Dembitskaya, Mariya , et al. (2019) In Global and Planetary Change 182.
Abstract
Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic... (More)
Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics. (Less)
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subject
keywords
Arctic, Cyclone activity, Climate change, Regional climate models, CORDEX
in
Global and Planetary Change
volume
182
article number
103005
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85071070933
ISSN
0921-8181
DOI
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005
language
English
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yes
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c4ae6551-285a-479c-bd89-4ea5946aee32
date added to LUP
2019-08-21 13:14:01
date last changed
2020-01-13 02:17:22
@article{c4ae6551-285a-479c-bd89-4ea5946aee32,
  abstract     = {Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.},
  author       = {Akperov, Mirseid and Rinke, Annette and Mokhov, Igor I. and Semenov, Vladimir A. and Parfenova, Mariya and Matthes, Heidrun and Adakudlu, Muralidhar and Boberg, Fredrik and Christensen, Jens H. and Dembitskaya, Mariya and Dethloff, Klaus and Fettweis, Xavier and Gutjahr, Oliver and Heinemann, Günther and Koenigk, Torben and Koldunov, Nikolay V. and Laprise, René and Mottram, Ruth and Nikiéma, Oumarou and Sein, Dmitry and Sobolowski, Stefan and Winger, Katja and Zhang, Wenxin},
  issn         = {0921-8181},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Global and Planetary Change},
  title        = {Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005},
  doi          = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005},
  volume       = {182},
  year         = {2019},
}