National-Level Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Local Scour under Bridge Piers in Sweden
(2023) In Journal of Infrastructure Systems 29(2).- Abstract
- Scour is an important cause of bridge failures. This article investigates the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour in all 246 Swedish catchment areas. Although a few previous studies assessed the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour in other countries, none of those studies identified the locations within a certain country where climate change is projected to have the highest impacts on bridge scour. A novel national-level method, based on possibility theory, is proposed herein for addressing this gap. The proposed method provides answers to the following questions: For which catchment areas is the projected increase in pier-scour depth highest or lowest? What is the percentage of catchment areas where climate change is... (More)
- Scour is an important cause of bridge failures. This article investigates the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour in all 246 Swedish catchment areas. Although a few previous studies assessed the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour in other countries, none of those studies identified the locations within a certain country where climate change is projected to have the highest impacts on bridge scour. A novel national-level method, based on possibility theory, is proposed herein for addressing this gap. The proposed method provides answers to the following questions: For which catchment areas is the projected increase in pier-scour depth highest or lowest? What is the percentage of catchment areas where climate change is projected to have either a positive or negative impact on scour risk in all scenarios? Which climate change scenarios cause the highest or lowest increase in equilibrium scour depth? Although these questions are addressed particularly for Sweden, the proposed method is generally applicable for any other location. The catchment area Riebnesströmmen (located in the northernmost county in Sweden) was identified to have the highest increase in the equilibrium scour depth in all considered reference periods (up to ∼25% increase), whereas the catchment area with the lowest increase varied depending on the considered reference period. The answers to the second question depended on the reference period and ranged from ∼5% to ∼10% and ∼8% to ∼14% for positive and negative impacts on scour risk, respectively. Interestingly, for the third question, it was found that higher-emission scenarios are not always more critical than lower-emission ones. These findings demonstrate the importance of performing national-level analyses of climate change impacts on infrastructure considering the different scenarios. The proposed method enables an efficient allocation of resources for adapting bridges to the increased scour risk due to climate change. Additionally, it can serve as a useful tool for quickly estimating the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour for a certain location.
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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/c622546b-3f7e-41ee-baca-cee0b4f1cecf
- author
- Nasr, Amro LU ; Björnsson, Ivar LU and Johansson, Jonas LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2023
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Journal of Infrastructure Systems
- volume
- 29
- issue
- 2
- article number
- 05023001
- pages
- 13 pages
- publisher
- American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85148216036
- ISSN
- 1076-0342
- DOI
- 10.1061/JITSE4.ISENG-2177
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- c622546b-3f7e-41ee-baca-cee0b4f1cecf
- date added to LUP
- 2023-02-17 09:35:40
- date last changed
- 2023-03-03 12:19:17
@article{c622546b-3f7e-41ee-baca-cee0b4f1cecf,
abstract = {{Scour is an important cause of bridge failures. This article investigates the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour in all 246 Swedish catchment areas. Although a few previous studies assessed the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour in other countries, none of those studies identified the locations within a certain country where climate change is projected to have the highest impacts on bridge scour. A novel national-level method, based on possibility theory, is proposed herein for addressing this gap. The proposed method provides answers to the following questions: For which catchment areas is the projected increase in pier-scour depth highest or lowest? What is the percentage of catchment areas where climate change is projected to have either a positive or negative impact on scour risk in all scenarios? Which climate change scenarios cause the highest or lowest increase in equilibrium scour depth? Although these questions are addressed particularly for Sweden, the proposed method is generally applicable for any other location. The catchment area Riebnesströmmen (located in the northernmost county in Sweden) was identified to have the highest increase in the equilibrium scour depth in all considered reference periods (up to ∼25% increase), whereas the catchment area with the lowest increase varied depending on the considered reference period. The answers to the second question depended on the reference period and ranged from ∼5% to ∼10% and ∼8% to ∼14% for positive and negative impacts on scour risk, respectively. Interestingly, for the third question, it was found that higher-emission scenarios are not always more critical than lower-emission ones. These findings demonstrate the importance of performing national-level analyses of climate change impacts on infrastructure considering the different scenarios. The proposed method enables an efficient allocation of resources for adapting bridges to the increased scour risk due to climate change. Additionally, it can serve as a useful tool for quickly estimating the impact of climate change on bridge-pier scour for a certain location.<br/><br/>}},
author = {{Nasr, Amro and Björnsson, Ivar and Johansson, Jonas}},
issn = {{1076-0342}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{2}},
publisher = {{American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)}},
series = {{Journal of Infrastructure Systems}},
title = {{National-Level Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Local Scour under Bridge Piers in Sweden}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/JITSE4.ISENG-2177}},
doi = {{10.1061/JITSE4.ISENG-2177}},
volume = {{29}},
year = {{2023}},
}