Strategic ignorance, and the management of performative effects
(2026) In Studies in history and philosophy of science 118.- Abstract
- It is a well-known predicament of the social sciences that predictions, if the right circumstances are in place, can intervene on the very processes the predictions concern. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of how modelers or scientists should act in the presence of such performative effects with a specific focus on the example of climate economics. Specifically, we will argue that two strategies for managing performative effects recently defended in the literature (i.e., mitigating and appraisal) will not be adequate for all cases because we often lack the knowledge to execute them properly. We will focus on the use of so-called integrated assessment models (IAMs) in climate policy, where the policy process spans large... (More)
- It is a well-known predicament of the social sciences that predictions, if the right circumstances are in place, can intervene on the very processes the predictions concern. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of how modelers or scientists should act in the presence of such performative effects with a specific focus on the example of climate economics. Specifically, we will argue that two strategies for managing performative effects recently defended in the literature (i.e., mitigating and appraisal) will not be adequate for all cases because we often lack the knowledge to execute them properly. We will focus on the use of so-called integrated assessment models (IAMs) in climate policy, where the policy process spans large time-horizons and heavily depends on a diverse set of social actors. For cases like this, we make the case that we should do neither mitigating nor appraisal and propose that it can be adequate to act as if one does not anticipate any performative effects. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/cdf32d6f-c7b6-4877-9b5e-2eac1bfcbe1f
- author
- Beck, Lukas and Thorén, Henrik LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Performativity, Climate economics, Modeling, Science-policy interface
- in
- Studies in history and philosophy of science
- volume
- 118
- article number
- 102177
- pages
- 10 pages
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:42320259
- ISSN
- 0039-3681
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.shpsa.2026.102177
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- cdf32d6f-c7b6-4877-9b5e-2eac1bfcbe1f
- date added to LUP
- 2024-03-14 08:08:10
- date last changed
- 2026-06-24 03:00:06
@article{cdf32d6f-c7b6-4877-9b5e-2eac1bfcbe1f,
abstract = {{It is a well-known predicament of the social sciences that predictions, if the right circumstances are in place, can intervene on the very processes the predictions concern. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of how modelers or scientists should act in the presence of such performative effects with a specific focus on the example of climate economics. Specifically, we will argue that two strategies for managing performative effects recently defended in the literature (i.e., mitigating and appraisal) will not be adequate for all cases because we often lack the knowledge to execute them properly. We will focus on the use of so-called integrated assessment models (IAMs) in climate policy, where the policy process spans large time-horizons and heavily depends on a diverse set of social actors. For cases like this, we make the case that we should do neither mitigating nor appraisal and propose that it can be adequate to act as if one does not anticipate any performative effects.}},
author = {{Beck, Lukas and Thorén, Henrik}},
issn = {{0039-3681}},
keywords = {{Performativity; Climate economics; Modeling; Science-policy interface}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Studies in history and philosophy of science}},
title = {{Strategic ignorance, and the management of performative effects}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2026.102177}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.shpsa.2026.102177}},
volume = {{118}},
year = {{2026}},
}