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Event Attribution science in adaptation decision-making : the context of extreme rainfall in urban Senegal

Young, Hannah R.; Cornforth, Rosalind J.; Gaye, Amadou T. and Boyd, Emily LU (2019) In Climate and Development
Abstract

Event attribution assesses the effect of climate change on individual extreme events. While scientists have suggested that results could be relevant for climate adaptation policy, this has had little empirical investigation, particularly in developing regions. Taking the case of Senegal, the national adaptation policy context regarding extreme precipitation and flooding in urban areas, and the scientific information needed to support this policy is investigated using key informant interviews, a workshop and document analysis. Flooding in Senegal was found to be viewed primarily as an urban planning concern rather than a climate change issue, with actions to address the impacts focussing on current vulnerabilities of urban communities... (More)

Event attribution assesses the effect of climate change on individual extreme events. While scientists have suggested that results could be relevant for climate adaptation policy, this has had little empirical investigation, particularly in developing regions. Taking the case of Senegal, the national adaptation policy context regarding extreme precipitation and flooding in urban areas, and the scientific information needed to support this policy is investigated using key informant interviews, a workshop and document analysis. Flooding in Senegal was found to be viewed primarily as an urban planning concern rather than a climate change issue, with actions to address the impacts focussing on current vulnerabilities of urban communities without considering changing climate risks. While stakeholders thought event attribution might be useful to inform about climate change impacts and future risks of extreme events, it is unclear whether there would be an opportunity for this at present, due to the limited role climate information has in adaptation decision-making. While addressing vulnerability to extremes is necessary whether or not the risk is climate change-related, if long-term planning is to be resilient then knowledge about future changes in risks of extremes will need to be considered, even if individual events are not attributed to climate change.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
adaptation policy, attribution, climate change, decision-making, extreme events, Senegal
in
Climate and Development
publisher
Taylor & Francis
external identifiers
  • scopus:85061313616
ISSN
1756-5529
DOI
10.1080/17565529.2019.1571401
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d73c2355-a406-4f37-9840-49c88f12e3a6
date added to LUP
2019-02-22 10:17:57
date last changed
2019-07-16 04:05:13
@article{d73c2355-a406-4f37-9840-49c88f12e3a6,
  abstract     = {<p>Event attribution assesses the effect of climate change on individual extreme events. While scientists have suggested that results could be relevant for climate adaptation policy, this has had little empirical investigation, particularly in developing regions. Taking the case of Senegal, the national adaptation policy context regarding extreme precipitation and flooding in urban areas, and the scientific information needed to support this policy is investigated using key informant interviews, a workshop and document analysis. Flooding in Senegal was found to be viewed primarily as an urban planning concern rather than a climate change issue, with actions to address the impacts focussing on current vulnerabilities of urban communities without considering changing climate risks. While stakeholders thought event attribution might be useful to inform about climate change impacts and future risks of extreme events, it is unclear whether there would be an opportunity for this at present, due to the limited role climate information has in adaptation decision-making. While addressing vulnerability to extremes is necessary whether or not the risk is climate change-related, if long-term planning is to be resilient then knowledge about future changes in risks of extremes will need to be considered, even if individual events are not attributed to climate change.</p>},
  author       = {Young, Hannah R. and Cornforth, Rosalind J. and Gaye, Amadou T. and Boyd, Emily},
  issn         = {1756-5529},
  keyword      = {adaptation policy,attribution,climate change,decision-making,extreme events,Senegal},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {02},
  publisher    = {Taylor & Francis},
  series       = {Climate and Development},
  title        = {Event Attribution science in adaptation decision-making : the context of extreme rainfall in urban Senegal},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1571401},
  year         = {2019},
}