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Highly resolved projections of climate and vegetation indicate major changes in northern Scandinavia: Implications for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation

Pleijel, Håkan ; Lagergren, Fredrik LU ; Kjellström, Erik ; Lind, Petter ; Miller, Paul LU orcid ; Björk, Robert G. ; Olenius, Tinja ; Belušić, Danijel ; Björkman, Mats P. and Lindstedt, David , et al. (2026) In Ambio: a Journal of Environment and Society
Abstract
Through Arctic amplification, global climate change is projected to disproportionally affect high-latitude environments. Additionally, the geographical heterogeneity and complex terrain of mountains promote climate-driven ecological change on fine spatial scales. We used a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (HCLIM) and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to explore mid-twentieth century implications of continued global warming for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation in the mountainous, northern parts of Scandinavia. Several indicators relevant for stakeholders were investigated: length of snow season, crossings of zero temperature, rain-on-snow events, as well as tree and forest... (More)
Through Arctic amplification, global climate change is projected to disproportionally affect high-latitude environments. Additionally, the geographical heterogeneity and complex terrain of mountains promote climate-driven ecological change on fine spatial scales. We used a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (HCLIM) and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to explore mid-twentieth century implications of continued global warming for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation in the mountainous, northern parts of Scandinavia. Several indicators relevant for stakeholders were investigated: length of snow season, crossings of zero temperature, rain-on-snow events, as well as tree and forest line shifts. Comparing results from the high-resolution (3 km) climate model with results from a coarser-scale (12 km) model commonly used for climate change assessments revealed that ecologically and societally significant patterns become apparent only at higher resolution. Large changes are projected among all investigated indicators for the present century, and we explore their societal implications. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
in
Ambio: a Journal of Environment and Society
publisher
Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
external identifiers
  • pmid:42174343
  • scopus:105039866413
ISSN
0044-7447
DOI
10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w
project
BioDiv-Support: Scenario-based decision support for policy planning and adaptation to future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d854c183-0e45-476d-8577-62ece0e356b3
date added to LUP
2026-08-31 14:32:41
date last changed
2026-09-01 04:01:01
@article{d854c183-0e45-476d-8577-62ece0e356b3,
  abstract     = {{Through Arctic amplification, global climate change is projected to disproportionally affect high-latitude environments. Additionally, the geographical heterogeneity and complex terrain of mountains promote climate-driven ecological change on fine spatial scales. We used a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (HCLIM) and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to explore mid-twentieth century implications of continued global warming for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation in the mountainous, northern parts of Scandinavia. Several indicators relevant for stakeholders were investigated: length of snow season, crossings of zero temperature, rain-on-snow events, as well as tree and forest line shifts. Comparing results from the high-resolution (3 km) climate model with results from a coarser-scale (12 km) model commonly used for climate change assessments revealed that ecologically and societally significant patterns become apparent only at higher resolution. Large changes are projected among all investigated indicators for the present century, and we explore their societal implications.}},
  author       = {{Pleijel, Håkan and Lagergren, Fredrik and Kjellström, Erik and Lind, Petter and Miller, Paul and Björk, Robert G. and Olenius, Tinja and Belušić, Danijel and Björkman, Mats P. and Lindstedt, David and Rosqvist, Gunhild and Andersson, Camilla}},
  issn         = {{0044-7447}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{04}},
  publisher    = {{Springer Science and Business Media B.V.}},
  series       = {{Ambio: a Journal of Environment and Society}},
  title        = {{Highly resolved projections of climate and vegetation indicate major changes in northern Scandinavia: Implications for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w}},
  doi          = {{10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}