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Geographical proximity and the transmission of drug abuse among siblings : Evaluating a contagion model in a Swedish National Sample

Kendler, Kenneth S. ; Ohlsson, Henrik LU ; Edwards, Alexis C. LU ; Sundquist, Jan LU and Sundquist, Kristina LU (2020) In Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences 29.
Abstract

AimsCan drug abuse (DA) be transmitted psychologically between adult siblings consistent with a social contagion model?MethodsWe followed Swedish sibling pairs born in 1932-1990 until one of them, sibling1 (S1), had a first DA registration. We then examined, using Cox regression, the hazard rate for a first registration for DA in sibling2 (S2) within 3 years of a first DA registration in S1 as a function of their geographical proximity. We examined 153 294 informative pairs. To control for familial confounding, we repeated these analyses in sibships containing multiple pairs, comparing risk in different siblings with their proximity to S1. DA was recorded in medical, criminal or pharmacy registries.ResultsThe best-fit model predicted... (More)

AimsCan drug abuse (DA) be transmitted psychologically between adult siblings consistent with a social contagion model?MethodsWe followed Swedish sibling pairs born in 1932-1990 until one of them, sibling1 (S1), had a first DA registration. We then examined, using Cox regression, the hazard rate for a first registration for DA in sibling2 (S2) within 3 years of a first DA registration in S1 as a function of their geographical proximity. We examined 153 294 informative pairs. To control for familial confounding, we repeated these analyses in sibships containing multiple pairs, comparing risk in different siblings with their proximity to S1. DA was recorded in medical, criminal or pharmacy registries.ResultsThe best-fit model predicted risk for DA in S2 as a function of the log of kilometres between S1 and S2 with parameter estimates (±95% confidence intervals) of 0.94 (0.92; 0.95). Prediction of DA included effects of cohabitation and an interaction of proximity and time since S1 registration with stronger effects of proximity early in the follow-up period. Proximity effects were stronger for smaller S1-S2 age differences and for same-v. opposite-sex pairs. Sibship analyses confirmed sibling-pair results.ConclusionsConsistent with a social contagion model, the probability of transmission of a first registration for DA in sibling pairs is related to their geographical proximity and similarity in age and sex. Such effects for DA are time-dependent and include cohabitation effects. These results illustrate the complexity of the familial aggregation of DA and support efforts to reduce their contagious spread within families in adulthood.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Drug abuse, epidemiology, social contagion, spatial clustering
in
Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences
volume
29
article number
e51
pages
9 pages
publisher
Il Pensiero scientifico editore
external identifiers
  • scopus:85071633614
  • pmid:31441394
ISSN
2045-7960
DOI
10.1017/S2045796019000453
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e02eb19a-bed8-43d9-92f5-c0608a300e30
date added to LUP
2019-09-26 14:56:24
date last changed
2020-01-15 09:54:54
@article{e02eb19a-bed8-43d9-92f5-c0608a300e30,
  abstract     = {<p>AimsCan drug abuse (DA) be transmitted psychologically between adult siblings consistent with a social contagion model?MethodsWe followed Swedish sibling pairs born in 1932-1990 until one of them, sibling1 (S1), had a first DA registration. We then examined, using Cox regression, the hazard rate for a first registration for DA in sibling2 (S2) within 3 years of a first DA registration in S1 as a function of their geographical proximity. We examined 153 294 informative pairs. To control for familial confounding, we repeated these analyses in sibships containing multiple pairs, comparing risk in different siblings with their proximity to S1. DA was recorded in medical, criminal or pharmacy registries.ResultsThe best-fit model predicted risk for DA in S2 as a function of the log of kilometres between S1 and S2 with parameter estimates (±95% confidence intervals) of 0.94 (0.92; 0.95). Prediction of DA included effects of cohabitation and an interaction of proximity and time since S1 registration with stronger effects of proximity early in the follow-up period. Proximity effects were stronger for smaller S1-S2 age differences and for same-v. opposite-sex pairs. Sibship analyses confirmed sibling-pair results.ConclusionsConsistent with a social contagion model, the probability of transmission of a first registration for DA in sibling pairs is related to their geographical proximity and similarity in age and sex. Such effects for DA are time-dependent and include cohabitation effects. These results illustrate the complexity of the familial aggregation of DA and support efforts to reduce their contagious spread within families in adulthood.</p>},
  author       = {Kendler, Kenneth S. and Ohlsson, Henrik and Edwards, Alexis C. and Sundquist, Jan and Sundquist, Kristina},
  issn         = {2045-7960},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {Il Pensiero scientifico editore},
  series       = {Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences},
  title        = {Geographical proximity and the transmission of drug abuse among siblings : Evaluating a contagion model in a Swedish National Sample},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S2045796019000453},
  doi          = {10.1017/S2045796019000453},
  volume       = {29},
  year         = {2020},
}