Advanced

Climate change impact on flood frequency and source area in northern Iran under CMIP5 scenarios

Maghsood, Fatemeh Fadia LU ; Moradi, Hamidreza; Bavani, Ali Reza Massah; Panahi, Mostafa; Berndtsson, Ronny LU and Hashemi, Hossein LU (2019) In Water (Switzerland) 11(2).
Abstract

This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill-Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020-40). To... (More)

This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill-Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020-40). To assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency pattern and to quantify the contribution of each subbasin on the total discharge from the Talar River Basin, Flood Frequency Index (FFI) and Subbasin Flood Source Area Index (SFSAI) were used. Results revealed that the projected climate change will likely lead to an average discharge decrease in January, February, and March for both RCPs and an increase in September and October for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature will likely increase for all months in the near future. The annual precipitation could increase by more than 20% in the near future. This is likely to lead to an increase of IPF. The results can help managers and policy makers to better define mitigation and adaptation strategies for basins in similar climates.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, Flood frequency, Flood source area, Iran, SWAT, Talar River Basin
in
Water (Switzerland)
volume
11
issue
2
publisher
MDPI AG
external identifiers
  • scopus:85061133924
ISSN
2073-4441
DOI
10.3390/w11020273
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e5baf41f-f79d-41a7-880b-b540b6a446a6
date added to LUP
2019-02-15 07:36:53
date last changed
2019-03-12 04:21:18
@article{e5baf41f-f79d-41a7-880b-b540b6a446a6,
  abstract     = {<p>This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill-Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020-40). To assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency pattern and to quantify the contribution of each subbasin on the total discharge from the Talar River Basin, Flood Frequency Index (FFI) and Subbasin Flood Source Area Index (SFSAI) were used. Results revealed that the projected climate change will likely lead to an average discharge decrease in January, February, and March for both RCPs and an increase in September and October for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature will likely increase for all months in the near future. The annual precipitation could increase by more than 20% in the near future. This is likely to lead to an increase of IPF. The results can help managers and policy makers to better define mitigation and adaptation strategies for basins in similar climates.</p>},
  articleno    = {273},
  author       = {Maghsood, Fatemeh Fadia and Moradi, Hamidreza and Bavani, Ali Reza Massah and Panahi, Mostafa and Berndtsson, Ronny and Hashemi, Hossein},
  issn         = {2073-4441},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Flood frequency,Flood source area,Iran,SWAT,Talar River Basin},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {02},
  number       = {2},
  publisher    = {MDPI AG},
  series       = {Water (Switzerland)},
  title        = {Climate change impact on flood frequency and source area in northern Iran under CMIP5 scenarios},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11020273},
  volume       = {11},
  year         = {2019},
}