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Peatlands Have the Potential to Emerge as Significant Contributors to Future Climate Warming

Chaudhary, Nitin LU orcid ; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka ; Kou, Dan ; Burman, Pramit Kumar Deb ; Lodh, Abhishek LU ; Lamba, Shubhangi ; Shurpali, Narasinha J. ; Schurgers, Guy ; Page, Susan E. and Westermann, Sebastian , et al. (2026) In Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 131.
Abstract
Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long-term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming-induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon-rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we modeled the past and future trends of peatland carbon and methane fluxes and their... (More)
Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long-term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming-induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon-rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we modeled the past and future trends of peatland carbon and methane fluxes and their influence on the climate system. We found that peatlands >25°N will remain a carbon sink and methane source under a low-warming scenario (RCP2.6), but they would shift from being not only a source of methane but also a source of carbon dioxide under a high-warming scenario (RCP8.5) by the mid-21st century leading to a strong radiative forcing (0.25 W m−2) by the end of the 23rd century. This underlines the potential warming feedback in which peatland radiative forcing on the climate system would shift from negative to positive in the future. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
volume
131
article number
e2025JG009540
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • scopus:105036550416
ISSN
2169-8953
DOI
10.1029/2025JG009540
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e7258368-9a6d-4734-b1ba-1f9213af47b0
date added to LUP
2026-04-29 10:27:11
date last changed
2026-04-30 09:33:26
@article{e7258368-9a6d-4734-b1ba-1f9213af47b0,
  abstract     = {{Peatlands store a substantial amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem. They are both long-term sinks of organic carbon and a major natural source of atmospheric methane. The accumulation of carbon is a result of net primary production surpassing decomposition rates over millennia, whereas methane production is intricately linked to the anaerobic decomposition of carbon mass. Warming-induced alterations in net primary productivity and decomposition rates are impacting net emissions, thereby jeopardizing the carbon sink capacity of these carbon-rich ecosystems and potentially turning them into sources of carbon dioxide and methane. In this study, we modeled the past and future trends of peatland carbon and methane fluxes and their influence on the climate system. We found that peatlands >25°N will remain a carbon sink and methane source under a low-warming scenario (RCP2.6), but they would shift from being not only a source of methane but also a source of carbon dioxide under a high-warming scenario (RCP8.5) by the mid-21st century leading to a strong radiative forcing (0.25 W m−2) by the end of the 23rd century. This underlines the potential warming feedback in which peatland radiative forcing on the climate system would shift from negative to positive in the future.}},
  author       = {{Chaudhary, Nitin and Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka and Kou, Dan and Burman, Pramit Kumar Deb and Lodh, Abhishek and Lamba, Shubhangi and Shurpali, Narasinha J. and Schurgers, Guy and Page, Susan E. and Westermann, Sebastian and Zhang, Wenxin}},
  issn         = {{2169-8953}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{04}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences}},
  title        = {{Peatlands Have the Potential to Emerge as Significant Contributors to Future Climate Warming}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009540}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2025JG009540}},
  volume       = {{131}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}