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Striking a balance between the costs and benefits of increasing response capability : A microworld study of the effect of capability assessments

Lindbom, Hanna LU and Tehler, Henrik LU (2019) In International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41.
Abstract

The Hyogo and Sendai frameworks highlight the key role of disaster risk management (DRM). However, the guidance is limited on how to best conduct DRM activities, such as capability assessments, to reduce the impact of disasters. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of different ways of presenting capability assessments, both when dealing with so-called high impact/low probability (HILP) events and low impact/high probability (LIHP) events. More specifically, we introduce microworld experiments as a new approach to studying and developing DRM knowledge. This approach allows the researcher to retain some of the dynamics and complexity of the real DRM context while providing greater experimental control compared to field studies. We... (More)

The Hyogo and Sendai frameworks highlight the key role of disaster risk management (DRM). However, the guidance is limited on how to best conduct DRM activities, such as capability assessments, to reduce the impact of disasters. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of different ways of presenting capability assessments, both when dealing with so-called high impact/low probability (HILP) events and low impact/high probability (LIHP) events. More specifically, we introduce microworld experiments as a new approach to studying and developing DRM knowledge. This approach allows the researcher to retain some of the dynamics and complexity of the real DRM context while providing greater experimental control compared to field studies. We report the results from such a study in which forty-nine DRM professionals assumed the role of municipal decision-makers who were asked to balance investments in public services and goods with increasing response capability (in order to reduce losses from potential future adverse events), with or without support from capability assessments. The results show, as expected that it was harder to manage the trade-off between the cost of increasing response capability and benefits in terms of reduced losses in HILP situations compared to LIHP. Also, the results show that presenting capability assessments to the decision-makers increased the investments in capability and they became better at balancing the cost of investment with reduced losses. The results thus suggest that capability assessments can be useful to support decision-making for proactively reducing the impacts of disasters.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Capability assessment, Decision-making, Disaster risk management (DRM), Investment, Microworld, Risk reduction
in
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
volume
41
article number
101297
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85071723653
ISSN
2212-4209
DOI
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101297
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e7df7335-6370-4546-9e53-b9be266c6199
date added to LUP
2019-09-16 09:26:15
date last changed
2019-11-25 09:34:20
@article{e7df7335-6370-4546-9e53-b9be266c6199,
  abstract     = {<p>The Hyogo and Sendai frameworks highlight the key role of disaster risk management (DRM). However, the guidance is limited on how to best conduct DRM activities, such as capability assessments, to reduce the impact of disasters. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of different ways of presenting capability assessments, both when dealing with so-called high impact/low probability (HILP) events and low impact/high probability (LIHP) events. More specifically, we introduce microworld experiments as a new approach to studying and developing DRM knowledge. This approach allows the researcher to retain some of the dynamics and complexity of the real DRM context while providing greater experimental control compared to field studies. We report the results from such a study in which forty-nine DRM professionals assumed the role of municipal decision-makers who were asked to balance investments in public services and goods with increasing response capability (in order to reduce losses from potential future adverse events), with or without support from capability assessments. The results show, as expected that it was harder to manage the trade-off between the cost of increasing response capability and benefits in terms of reduced losses in HILP situations compared to LIHP. Also, the results show that presenting capability assessments to the decision-makers increased the investments in capability and they became better at balancing the cost of investment with reduced losses. The results thus suggest that capability assessments can be useful to support decision-making for proactively reducing the impacts of disasters.</p>},
  author       = {Lindbom, Hanna and Tehler, Henrik},
  issn         = {2212-4209},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
  title        = {Striking a balance between the costs and benefits of increasing response capability : A microworld study of the effect of capability assessments},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101297},
  doi          = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101297},
  volume       = {41},
  year         = {2019},
}