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The geographical origins of the wealth of regions

L. Cermeño, Alexandra LU orcid ; Salvo, Carla LU and Weisdorf, Jacob LU (2026) In Cliometrica
Abstract
Why are some regions rich and others poor? This study investigates the geographical origins of Italy’s persistent regional income gap. Using municipal population density as both a proxy for historical income and an outcome shaped by geography, we show that first-nature advantages, such as mild climates and fertile soils, predict higher population density in Northern Italy from the earliest available data (c. 500 AD). Second-nature forces (agglomeration and market connectivity) then reinforced this initial lead. We find that first- and second-nature geography jointly predict half of today’s municipal variation in income per capita, whereas Italy’s pre-unification regional histories account for only about one-fifth.
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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
in
Cliometrica
publisher
Springer
ISSN
1863-2513
DOI
10.1007/s11698-025-00328-4
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e7f7f73e-1725-47c9-a2fd-859f5e63e229
date added to LUP
2026-03-09 16:40:55
date last changed
2026-03-10 15:30:16
@article{e7f7f73e-1725-47c9-a2fd-859f5e63e229,
  abstract     = {{Why are some regions rich and others poor? This study investigates the geographical origins of Italy’s persistent regional income gap. Using municipal population density as both a proxy for historical income and an outcome shaped by geography, we show that first-nature advantages, such as mild climates and fertile soils, predict higher population density in Northern Italy from the earliest available data (c. 500 AD). Second-nature forces (agglomeration and market connectivity) then reinforced this initial lead. We find that first- and second-nature geography jointly predict half of today’s municipal variation in income per capita, whereas Italy’s pre-unification regional histories account for only about one-fifth.}},
  author       = {{L. Cermeño, Alexandra and Salvo, Carla and Weisdorf, Jacob}},
  issn         = {{1863-2513}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{03}},
  publisher    = {{Springer}},
  series       = {{Cliometrica}},
  title        = {{The geographical origins of the wealth of regions}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11698-025-00328-4}},
  doi          = {{10.1007/s11698-025-00328-4}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}