Measuring Inflation Expectations in Interwar Britain
(2021) In CESifo Working Papers- Abstract
- What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the
“expectations channel” - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and
stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the
economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency
information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United
Kingdom between the wars. A VAR model suggests that inflation expectations were an important
source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/ea7915d4-1cda-4a99-9024-a6396cad3015
- author
- Lennard, Jason LU ; Meinecke, Finn and Solomou, Solomos
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021
- type
- Working paper/Preprint
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- CESifo Working Papers
- issue
- 9425
- ISSN
- 2364-1428
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- ea7915d4-1cda-4a99-9024-a6396cad3015
- alternative location
- https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2021/working-paper/measuring-inflation-expectations-interwar-britain
- date added to LUP
- 2021-12-17 15:06:20
- date last changed
- 2025-04-04 14:38:29
@misc{ea7915d4-1cda-4a99-9024-a6396cad3015,
abstract = {{What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the <br/>“expectations channel” - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and <br/>stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the <br/>economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency <br/>information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United <br/>Kingdom between the wars. A VAR model suggests that inflation expectations were an important <br/>source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.}},
author = {{Lennard, Jason and Meinecke, Finn and Solomou, Solomos}},
issn = {{2364-1428}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Working Paper}},
number = {{9425}},
series = {{CESifo Working Papers}},
title = {{Measuring Inflation Expectations in Interwar Britain}},
url = {{https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2021/working-paper/measuring-inflation-expectations-interwar-britain}},
year = {{2021}},
}