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Asking about Social Circles Improves Election Predictions Even with Many Political Parties

De Bruin, Wändi Bruine ; Galesic, Mirta ; Bååth, Rasmus LU ; De Bresser, Jochem ; Hall, Lars LU ; Johansson, Petter LU ; Strandberg, Thomas LU and Van Soest, Arthur (2022) In International Journal of Public Opinion Research 34(1).
Abstract

Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants' own voting intentions. In four elections, we previously found that we could improve predictions by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. A potential concern is that the social-circle question might predict results less well in elections with larger numbers of political options because it becomes harder to accurately track how social contacts plan to vote. However, we now find that the social-circle question performs better than the own-intention question in predicting two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands' 2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
election polls, multiparty elections, social-circle questions, voting intentions
in
International Journal of Public Opinion Research
volume
34
issue
1
article number
edac006
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85129063117
ISSN
0954-2892
DOI
10.1093/ijpor/edac006
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
efb5452a-45fe-4047-b910-6a1f467455b3
date added to LUP
2022-07-04 12:57:33
date last changed
2022-07-04 12:57:33
@article{efb5452a-45fe-4047-b910-6a1f467455b3,
  abstract     = {{<p>Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants' own voting intentions. In four elections, we previously found that we could improve predictions by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. A potential concern is that the social-circle question might predict results less well in elections with larger numbers of political options because it becomes harder to accurately track how social contacts plan to vote. However, we now find that the social-circle question performs better than the own-intention question in predicting two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands' 2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election. </p>}},
  author       = {{De Bruin, Wändi Bruine and Galesic, Mirta and Bååth, Rasmus and De Bresser, Jochem and Hall, Lars and Johansson, Petter and Strandberg, Thomas and Van Soest, Arthur}},
  issn         = {{0954-2892}},
  keywords     = {{election polls; multiparty elections; social-circle questions; voting intentions}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Oxford University Press}},
  series       = {{International Journal of Public Opinion Research}},
  title        = {{Asking about Social Circles Improves Election Predictions Even with Many Political Parties}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edac006}},
  doi          = {{10.1093/ijpor/edac006}},
  volume       = {{34}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}