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Scenario-based spatial flood hazard analysis : A case study of the Limpopo river basin

Mathe, Marcio Fernando LU orcid ; Hasan, Abdulghani LU orcid and Persson, Andreas LU (2025) In Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 61.
Abstract

Study region: The Limpopo River Basin (LRB) is a transboundary catchment in Southern Africa, shared by South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. The basin is increasingly affected by climate variability, land-use change, and rapid population growth, with the Chókwe floodplain in Mozambique representing a hotspot of socio-economic vulnerability to floods. Study focus: This study applies the HYPE hydrological model, driven by nine bias-corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs), to project future high-flow extremes in the LRB under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To account for non-stationarity, flood frequency analysis was performed using the Gumbel distribution within two quasi-stationary time slices: mid-century... (More)

Study region: The Limpopo River Basin (LRB) is a transboundary catchment in Southern Africa, shared by South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. The basin is increasingly affected by climate variability, land-use change, and rapid population growth, with the Chókwe floodplain in Mozambique representing a hotspot of socio-economic vulnerability to floods. Study focus: This study applies the HYPE hydrological model, driven by nine bias-corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs), to project future high-flow extremes in the LRB under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To account for non-stationarity, flood frequency analysis was performed using the Gumbel distribution within two quasi-stationary time slices: mid-century (2030–2064) and late-century (2065–2099). Additional intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) analysis was used to evaluate changes in short-duration rainfall extremes. New hydrological insights for the region: By the late century, ensemble projections indicate that 50-year floods will increase by ∼84 % under RCP 4.5 and ∼106 % under RCP 8.5, while 100-year floods may rise by ∼116 % and ∼142 %, respectively, compared to the historical baseline (13,551 m³/s). IDF analyses indicate an intensification of short-duration rainfall, particularly under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that floods of historically rare magnitude may recur multiple times within a century, posing increasingly significant risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and settlements in the Lower Limpopo. The findings emphasise the need for adaptive flood management, updated design standards, and strengthened transboundary cooperation in the basin.

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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, Flood-frequency Analysis, Hydrological modelling, Hype Model, Limpopo River Basin, Southern Africa
in
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
volume
61
article number
102736
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:105014649005
ISSN
2214-5818
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102736
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f2c420b2-6cee-49c5-a2b2-0652069097c3
date added to LUP
2025-10-10 13:44:14
date last changed
2025-10-14 10:53:08
@article{f2c420b2-6cee-49c5-a2b2-0652069097c3,
  abstract     = {{<p>Study region: The Limpopo River Basin (LRB) is a transboundary catchment in Southern Africa, shared by South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. The basin is increasingly affected by climate variability, land-use change, and rapid population growth, with the Chókwe floodplain in Mozambique representing a hotspot of socio-economic vulnerability to floods. Study focus: This study applies the HYPE hydrological model, driven by nine bias-corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs), to project future high-flow extremes in the LRB under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To account for non-stationarity, flood frequency analysis was performed using the Gumbel distribution within two quasi-stationary time slices: mid-century (2030–2064) and late-century (2065–2099). Additional intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) analysis was used to evaluate changes in short-duration rainfall extremes. New hydrological insights for the region: By the late century, ensemble projections indicate that 50-year floods will increase by ∼84 % under RCP 4.5 and ∼106 % under RCP 8.5, while 100-year floods may rise by ∼116 % and ∼142 %, respectively, compared to the historical baseline (13,551 m³/s). IDF analyses indicate an intensification of short-duration rainfall, particularly under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that floods of historically rare magnitude may recur multiple times within a century, posing increasingly significant risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and settlements in the Lower Limpopo. The findings emphasise the need for adaptive flood management, updated design standards, and strengthened transboundary cooperation in the basin.</p>}},
  author       = {{Mathe, Marcio Fernando and Hasan, Abdulghani and Persson, Andreas}},
  issn         = {{2214-5818}},
  keywords     = {{Climate change; Flood-frequency Analysis; Hydrological modelling; Hype Model; Limpopo River Basin; Southern Africa}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}},
  title        = {{Scenario-based spatial flood hazard analysis : A case study of the Limpopo river basin}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102736}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102736}},
  volume       = {{61}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}