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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Soultan, Alaaeldin ; Pavón-Jordán, Diego ; Bradter, Ute ; Sandercock, Brett K. ; Hochachka, Wesley M. ; Johnston, Alison ; Brommer, Jon ; Gaget, Elie ; Keller, Verena and Knaus, Peter , et al. (2022) In Environmental Research Letters 17(2).
Abstract

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca.... (More)

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
breeding distributions, climate change, European Breeding Bird Atlas, land-use change, species distribution models
in
Environmental Research Letters
volume
17
issue
2
article number
024025
publisher
IOP Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:85125491548
ISSN
1748-9318
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f905baf5-811a-4603-a76f-cd676be5a35e
date added to LUP
2022-05-02 12:23:24
date last changed
2024-05-16 09:28:25
@article{f905baf5-811a-4603-a76f-cd676be5a35e,
  abstract     = {{<p>Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future. </p>}},
  author       = {{Soultan, Alaaeldin and Pavón-Jordán, Diego and Bradter, Ute and Sandercock, Brett K. and Hochachka, Wesley M. and Johnston, Alison and Brommer, Jon and Gaget, Elie and Keller, Verena and Knaus, Peter and Aghababyan, Karen and Maxhuni, Qenan and Vintchevski, Alexandre and Nagy, Károly and Raudonikis, Liutauras and Balmer, Dawn and Noble, David and Leitão, Domingos and Øien, Ingar Jostein and Shimmings, Paul and Sultanov, Elchin and Caffrey, Brian and Boyla, Kerem and Radišić, Dimitrije and Lindström, Åke and Velevski, Metodija and Pladevall, Clara and Brotons, Lluís and Karel, Šťastny and Rajković, Drazenko Z. and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz and Wilk, Tomasz and Szép, Tibor and Van Turnhout, Chris and Foppen, Ruud and Burfield, Ian and Vikstrøm, Thomas and Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic and Eaton, Mark and Vorisek, Petr and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Herrando, Sergi and Kuzmenko, Tatiana and Bauer, Hans Günther and Kalyakin, Mikhail V. and Voltzit, Olga V. and Sjeničić, Jovica and Pärt, Tomas}},
  issn         = {{1748-9318}},
  keywords     = {{breeding distributions; climate change; European Breeding Bird Atlas; land-use change; species distribution models}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  publisher    = {{IOP Publishing}},
  series       = {{Environmental Research Letters}},
  title        = {{The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe}},
  doi          = {{10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe}},
  volume       = {{17}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}