Robust Decision Analysis under Severe Uncertainty and Ambiguous Tradeoffs : An Invasive Species Case Study
Sahlin, Ullrika LU
; Troffaes, Matthias C.M.
and Edsman, Lennart
(2021)
In Risk Analysis
41(11).
p.2140-2153
- Abstract
Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value... (More)
Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value ambiguity. We demonstrate these methods on an environmental management problem to eradicate an alien invasive marmorkrebs recently discovered in Sweden, which needed a rapid response despite substantial knowledge gaps if the species was still present (i.e., severe uncertainty) and the need for difficult tradeoffs and competing interests (i.e., value ambiguity). We identify that the decision alternatives to drain the system and remove individuals in combination with dredging and sieving with or without a degradable biocide, or increasing pH, are consistently bad under the entire range of probability and utility bounds. This case study shows how robust Bayesian decision analysis provides a transparent methodology for integrating information in risk management problems where little data are available and/or where the tradeoffs are ambiguous.
(Less)
- author
- Sahlin, Ullrika
LU
; Troffaes, Matthias C.M.
and Edsman, Lennart
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Bayesian, decision theory, invasive species, subjective probability, utility
- in
- Risk Analysis
- volume
- 41
- issue
- 11
- pages
- 2140 - 2153
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85105079850
- pmid:33951209
- ISSN
- 0272-4332
- DOI
- 10.1111/risa.13722
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- fae85d1f-5690-4078-a62a-aabe00c28018
- date added to LUP
- 2021-05-28 16:58:10
- date last changed
- 2024-06-15 11:42:26
@article{fae85d1f-5690-4078-a62a-aabe00c28018,
abstract = {{<p>Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value ambiguity. We demonstrate these methods on an environmental management problem to eradicate an alien invasive marmorkrebs recently discovered in Sweden, which needed a rapid response despite substantial knowledge gaps if the species was still present (i.e., severe uncertainty) and the need for difficult tradeoffs and competing interests (i.e., value ambiguity). We identify that the decision alternatives to drain the system and remove individuals in combination with dredging and sieving with or without a degradable biocide, or increasing pH, are consistently bad under the entire range of probability and utility bounds. This case study shows how robust Bayesian decision analysis provides a transparent methodology for integrating information in risk management problems where little data are available and/or where the tradeoffs are ambiguous.</p>}},
author = {{Sahlin, Ullrika and Troffaes, Matthias C.M. and Edsman, Lennart}},
issn = {{0272-4332}},
keywords = {{Bayesian; decision theory; invasive species; subjective probability; utility}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{11}},
pages = {{2140--2153}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{Risk Analysis}},
title = {{Robust Decision Analysis under Severe Uncertainty and Ambiguous Tradeoffs : An Invasive Species Case Study}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13722}},
doi = {{10.1111/risa.13722}},
volume = {{41}},
year = {{2021}},
}