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Cold-Season Methane Fluxes Simulated by GCP-CH4 Models

Ito, A. ; Li, T. ; Qin, Z. ; Melton, J. R. ; Tian, H. ; Kleinen, T. ; Zhang, W. LU orcid ; Zhang, Z. ; Joos, F. and Ciais, P. , et al. (2023) In Geophysical Research Letters 50(14).
Abstract

Cold-season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold-season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in-situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months... (More)

Cold-season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold-season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in-situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold-season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade−1. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
cold-season emissions, global warming, methane budget, model intercomparison, wetland models
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
50
issue
14
article number
e2023GL103037
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85165491723
ISSN
0094-8276
DOI
10.1029/2023GL103037
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fda1c786-4903-4d81-bbd3-d594439e6e02
date added to LUP
2023-09-05 15:01:14
date last changed
2023-09-07 07:49:49
@article{fda1c786-4903-4d81-bbd3-d594439e6e02,
  abstract     = {{<p>Cold-season methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold-season CH<sub>4</sub> emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from northern (&gt;60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>. While summer CH<sub>4</sub> emissions were well simulated compared to in-situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH<sub>4</sub> during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold-season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade<sup>−1</sup>. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.</p>}},
  author       = {{Ito, A. and Li, T. and Qin, Z. and Melton, J. R. and Tian, H. and Kleinen, T. and Zhang, W. and Zhang, Z. and Joos, F. and Ciais, P. and Hopcroft, P. O. and Beerling, D. J. and Liu, X. and Zhuang, Q. and Zhu, Q. and Peng, C. and Chang, K. Y. and Fluet-Chouinard, E. and McNicol, G. and Patra, P. and Poulter, B. and Sitch, S. and Riley, W. and Zhu, Q.}},
  issn         = {{0094-8276}},
  keywords     = {{cold-season emissions; global warming; methane budget; model intercomparison; wetland models}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{14}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Cold-Season Methane Fluxes Simulated by GCP-CH<sub>4</sub> Models}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103037}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2023GL103037}},
  volume       = {{50}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}